Current View on Gold

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
77 8 2
Price has dropped below the key level of $1142.59 today since I wrote this, so I have posted some updates below

My sense about gold             vs. the U.S. Dollar at this time is:

The bearish triangle that developed between 2013-2014 implied that there would be a downward post-triangle impulsive thrust to the area of $1003. It has not yet reached that low, though the price initially fell in what appears to be an impulse and in November 2014 began another triangle.

I see this new triangle as the 4th wave of the post-triangle thrust. Provided price does not go above $1292.03 during the final wave "e" of the triangle, this could remain valid. I have come to stand by the motto "Trust the thrust", because when they occur they rarely fail to meet their targets unless 1) the triangle's parameters have been wrongly assumed, or 2) some greater overriding limitation halts them (e.g.. the C-wave             thrust from a B wave which is cut short by the requirement of wave 2 not to exceed the origin of wave 1), and so I strongly expect that the 2013-2014 triangle thrust will meet its ultimate downside target, or at least nearly so. This just seems to be one of those that is not so much a "thrust" in the fast and furious sense. Perhaps it is one of those that Prechter describes as producing an extended 5th wave instead.

So, I take it that this current 4th wave triangle will produce a 5th wave thrust which will ultimately meet or exceed the target of the 2013-2014 "parent" triangle. While this latest leg has not dipped below $1142.59, and also based on its appearance, I am labeling it as wave "d". I expect then, that wave "e" will now develop upward as an impulse or perhaps as a triangle itself. In order for the thrust measured for this current triangle to meet exactly the downside target of the thrust measured for the larger parent triangle, the "e" wave should need to travel up to about $1222. If the triangle is calibrating a thrust that would be further down than that, the wave "e" could end anywhere between the present level and below $1292.03. In any case, assuming this triangle structure is true, a breach below $1142.59 (wave "d" lower limit) should confirm the thrust has begun.

The "e" wave of a triangle typically has a length which represents a significant Fibonacci proportion of its wave "a" and/or "c" counterparts within the triangle. I find that the range of $1208-1233 has tight cluster of several such Fib relationships to both waves "a" and "c". The level $1222 just happens to be right in the middle of the range.

Therefore, I am preparing for a rise up to that area followed by a more forceful drop to $1003 or lower.
Since what I had labeled as wave "d" was broken to the downside a little while ago, I am inclined to shift the labels of "d" and "e" back one step. Assuming the thrust is now in progress, the new labeling implies a thrust down to around $962, which both meets and exceeds the implied thrust of the larger triangle from 2013.
AynCzubas AynCzubas
AynCzubas AynCzubas
Possible alternate count, assuming larger greater triangle from 2013 has just completed:
Since price has just breached $1142.59, I expect that "d" actually ended at $1162.59 and "e" peaked at $1203.97 and the downward thrust has begun
AynCzubas AynCzubas
...unless this means that this is STILL all a complex "b" wave, in which case this triangle has a very long way to go until completion. Price action should clarify this very soon.
For all I know, this tiny triangle could be the "e" wave right here, setting up to push out of the triangle today.
AynCzubas AynCzubas
Or...has it found a way to just barely avoid breaching wave b's low (1142.59), by means of a thrust in the form of a stunted ending diagonal(?)
AynCzubas AynCzubas
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