From a technical perspective, there are 2 wave relationships showing up in the 1130-1135 zone...so these traders MIGHT be right. If a break does occur, there is another wave relationship at 1093 and around 1065.
The labels on the chart suggest we are in an expanded and prices are likely to visit above 1300 in the coming months. The question is, how low does this expanded flat push?
The false breakout zone extends to 1065. The deeper we cut towards 1065, the better the risk to reward ratio.
A large reason why I'm favoring the expanded flat is the slope of the sell off since January. This recent sell off has a much softer slope than the prior 2 waves. Therefore, it is behaving more like a 'B' wave than a 3rd wave.
Best of luck!
More specifically to your point, it is an interesting alternative. I am curious how you count out that C leg of - the flat correction. Would you mind posting it below?
Sentiment is contrarian...so as retail traders shift towards bears, look for bullish opportunities.
As of now, the sell off stopped at the lowest point noted in the original analysis. The expanded flat correction suggests a 5 wave 'C' wave higher. The overnight low is a key level if 1130 is regained.
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SSI is steady at +2.0 so net positioning hasn't changed much on Gold.
Open positions show longs have grown slightly (up 4%) and shorts are down slightly (-2%) compared to last Friday's levels.
Further dipping may take place and 1060 area may see a real test coming. Wave relationships and wave positioning suggest 1060 area holds on the first test. A move above 1119 builds the case for a bottom.
I will be out of pocket for the next week. Talk with when I get back.