Victor.Y.F

"Two worlds one future" from the movie "upside down 2012"

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
461 29 11
Warning: Pure theory not for trade.
This is an example how correlation changes. After that red line we have an upside down situation. It's a self-fulfilling machine.
Comment: In case we have a rates hike next week. Watch out the SMA 10 months, it's the key.
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Comment: Remember that: There's no turning point without extreme sentiment and volitality and capital squeezing. We could see multi spikes above SMA 10 months. This is an other 2001 cycle not likes 2008.
Comment: It was the rates hike pushed inflation from 0.7% to 1.4%. Think about it who is making the inflation? Or manipulating market?
Comment: What's the market done at 2001 cycle. Where those spikes will be. Time and dates are not accurate, they're removed for a better chart view.
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Comment: Thank you for your likes! This is how the trend has been forming.
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Comment: Stay tuned renminbi is broadcasting ......
Comment: After that thin red line we have inflation leading us for 11-12 months. From time perspective we shall have 11 months gold running to Nov. 2016 at least. From price perspective if it's rising as the same angle as 2009 we should have 30 dollar per 0.1% inflation. The target is 1046+30*14=1466.
The upside down world means when the gold is up, the inflation is down. So at 1466 we will have lower inflation in USA which is too low to help FRB then they have to do it again. The second hike will support inflation up to 1.4% or more and should draw down gold. At the second hike we could calculate the angle per 0.1% inflation down it suppose to be flatter than the up angle and we could predict how long the draw down will be and how deep it will be.
Comment: Patience is the key virtue of a good investor. This pair has its 10 months SMA at 1268 after last month close. Let's see the price there.
Comment: I knew some top authors are looking my chart.
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Comment: Stop buying, the trend colud have been change down.
No update untill clearly directions.
Comment: Huston we have problems.
As the chart showing us the DXY is representing the USA inflation or we can say EURO now is the measuring currency for the inflation. Usually, we always have USD as the price measuring currency because EURO is not a popular currency for all over world countries markets, they are all aiming to the USD for pricing all kinds of commodities. From 2015 CHF black swan the correlation is inversed by manipulating from FRB and SNB. For my point of view they're all selling the gold now because USD is the inflation but not the gold.
But we have Trump wins in 2016. We now know he is cutting tax from companies and repealing health insurance plan. The incomes of US treasury will be less and only double the US bunds can help the budget of US government finance. We can not rule out that FRB will rise rates in Dec. 2016 because the Trump wins will change it. It's very hard to change the long term correlation like that without an other black swan situation. We're watching it very carefully if any thing can change it back. That means if the inflation is weak gold should fall and DXY should rise.

Here is the thing:
1, correlation goes on without black swan, inflation up DXY up gold down, inflation down DXY down gold up.
2, correlation changes back to normal by black swan, inflation up DXY down gold up, infaltion down DXY up gold down.
And from my point of view NO hike in Dec.
Comment: Boring, a hike like last year. The SSI is changing rapidly from +2.2 to +1.17 nearly flipped to net short in last 30 minutes, a margin call, I guess a lot of speculators are blowed off in a short time.
Now we may try some long here. But remember, as long as UJ is rising this bounce off is short lived.
Trend is DOWN.
Comment: I redraw this chart with new inflation data after the second hike. The negative correlation isn't changed yet. I think the Brexit is the one failed trying of returning it back to normal. Because Brexit should push gold up FTSE up and Sterling down but it's failed. Image if you are a British, before Brexit you bought a lot of gold and stocks to protect your purchase power and now those investments are all going to fail. Thanks for the dollar negative correlation.
Comment:
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Comment: Now let's put all those emotions away and look it carefully.
After the first hike, we got the inflation from 0.7 to 1.4 and falling to 0.8 in 7 months. After the second hike last week we got it from 1.6 to 1.7, it was only rose by 0.1. We're waiting for next month to look at it if it's falling and failed. From my point of view the US inflation is weak and not sustainable.
Let's inverse this from Jan. 2015 with black bars and paste it back. Look at the trendline from longterm we can see the real inflation is breaking the trend line now.
So the next inflation rate is the key for keeping us looking at it. And remember following keys:
Here is the thing
1, correlation goes on without black swan, inflation up DXY up gold down, inflation down DXY down gold up.
2, correlation changes back to normal by black swan, inflation up DXY down gold up, infaltion down DXY up gold down.
Comment: Now, let's do a small calculation.
2015 dropping = 1307- 1046 = 261$ , as an equal leg ,
2016 dropping = 1375- 261 = 1114$.
We have low at 1122$ so there will be some lower next week to adjust the 0.1% inflation by 7$.
Tomorrow, I would like to take this farther to show you guys DAX and DXY after the upside down world. It'll be very very interesting.
Comment: Oh, I forgot this. Let's do a rough caculation of inflation truncation. Because it's an equal leg and the inflation should like this.
2015 rising = 1.4- 0 = 1.4, as an equal leg, we should have
2016 rising = 0.8+ 1.4 = 2.2 after the hike.
But we only have 1.7 now. This is called a truncation by EW waver.
2016 rising = 0.8+ 1.4*(0.618)= 1.66, around 1.7
The Brexit also caused a truncation from EURO measured gold. So for me it looks like failing in USA inflation too. After the truncation the EW wave suggest a pullback to 0.8 or lower to complete a 3-3-5 flat or a 5-3-5 tree waves back.
I'm not assuming this will be bottomed or something of buying signal.
It's an imagnation.
Comment: See the new analysis "An Artificial Inflation (wants to see new episode Star Wars)" to find DAX and DXY futures.
DXY target is around 105 (104.68) if the correlation is going on and the inflation expectation is lower in Jan. 2017.
Comment: Inflation expectation in USA could go to 2.2% as an equal leg or higher and DXY could be rushing to form an big head.
This is NOT a buying signal.
Comment: On trading
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Comment: Look, I can trade all your ways, something's confidential, like hedge way that you can't image.
More trading less showing in 2017.
Comment: Batman pattern (Alt) 0.886 completed partially, could go to 3.618 C leg and 1.128 XA. Added more short here.
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Comment: stop: 1186.65 Batman pattern Alt 1.128 XA.
target: adjusted to 1175.22, a pivot daily and 0.618 truncation.
Go to sleep now, let it be.
Comment: Stopped out already, a trader's life.
C'est la vie.
Comment: Expecting US inflation is failing from 1.7-1.8 to 1.7*(1-0.786) = 0.36 around 0.3%-0.4%. It'll be very interesting to see central banks actions from this failing especially under Trump's hard trading conditions shadow. They could do NOTHING this time.
Comment: I completed monthly analysis. The gold inflation could ping-pong between 0.9% - 1.8% for several months before the failure. Commercial currencies are all hiking In this year of 2017. It's gonna be very shaky before something happen from FRB.
Comment: More liar... Truth is boring. Denis.Y.Y
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Comment: The fractal resonance is an experimental tool, I'm looking to back test it for the best performance and update ends here.
Comment: This is NOT a signal.
Many scalpers and traders are off the train today, that's good. This is an healthy retest the neck-line from ETF SPDR increasing the net holding for the price down in negative interests condition. 6 days increasing by 18 Ton net holding is the reason caused the price down. The indexes are rallying, capital flows into stocks and today the SPDR net holding is flat.
The BOJ steps in today and Trump is angry about the YEN's weakening, the meeting of Trump and Anbei will be an Golf journey. Let's see Where the neck is, an head shoulder PO by 1X should happen.
Comment: ETF SPDR holding decreased by 2.37 Ton the first one after 8 days increasing.
Comment: Speculators are off the train now. The SSI reverted from net long holding to net short holding on the first week. If you on the train then wait for the impulse to take your profits, if you're not on then watch it. Looks like staying away from the market some time is better way for scalpers.
Comment: Off the train today and watch it.
Comment: There're some pending orders......
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Comment: The FXCM SSI is +2.3 net long holding from scpeculators, this means more down side moving. Orders are pending...... I will wait and see Lol. There's no entry before 15th March and the Netherlands election result.
Comment: Source:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-st-opens-higher-healthcare-133305071.html
Since we're waiting for the healthcare bill vote and the storm is still on, I'd like to talk about the real technics of the battle field statics from the triangle. Some thing you may notice that:
1, The triangle E as the burst point often starts near the D point or the apex.
2, The triangle is a 3 wave but it swings like a 5 wave.
3, If the E point moves to the apex without bursting then the power is weak.
4, Be careful to trade the triangle, it's the hedging fund manager's favorites.
An very good example here...
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Comment: It's very interesting to watch speculators actions now. ^^
Comment: No panic, we're at March close and a weekend close, profits taking could form the monthly wick tail. This's very common nowadays in a low volitality market condition. Buy the dips, ok? If the trend pulls back then flat, we're not gonna take every pips from the market, right? Take it easy. Not everyday is a trading day.
Comment: Many scalpels have habits to trade at the weekend and monthly close there're too many ideas now on TV today, could be the record high. Lol. I suggest scalpers ignoring the correlations and ignoring long term analysis just plan to trade short time. Long term analysis is the specialty of analysts and one of the best long term analyst is undervalued on TV.
Comment: I shall publish a new idea of April fool Gold soon, stay tuned......
Comment: April fool Gold!!! this's a joke! Lol... check out the date...
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Comment: Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-something-happen-assad-u-military-studies-001519231.html
I hope you guys are on the right side of the market.
Comment: Yesterday our Japanese analyst and I have an interesting talk about why US-China have to hold the second round meeting in Washington. We drew all lines together and found those treads point to only one conclusion ...
This's very sensitive now what I can tell you guys is the risk on is coming back and forex market shall move.
Comment: This could go higher before the France election till end of the April. We have BOJ on the 27th. If BOJ act, this one will be flat for several months. Because if DXY and Yen are both going weak their correlations with XAUUSD should cancel each other. I will sell all my positions after the election and invest a better market.
Stay tuned......
Comment: The 15th. April is a key time window for North Korea showing their hands. Our analysts suggest that all possibilities could happen but not just the sixth nuclear test. This week may end dramatically with Kim's announcing open talks of giving up nuclear and economic reforms like what in 1980's China did. As we now know over 200 foreign journalists are gathering in there and a big event will happen. Let's see the show.
I really suggest scalpers flat or taking profits or balancing the account in gold today. We can trade it later from next week.
Comment: Source:
http://www.france24.com/en/tag/french-presidential-elections-2017/
Now we focus on France election. The first round result could be the "petit Pont" (Le Pen) and the "Macron cake" (Macron). Then we go to the second round.
The North Korea nuclear 6th. test is still on, BTW.
Comment: We now have the 10 months SMA at 1254-1255 area before this month close. The long term trend line should be retested after the broken. This month close is very important. If we look at the GDX then gold cloud drop hard with more corrections in the May. Commercial currencies are against DXY and are getting stronger for dragging down gold but after purchase power recovering those directions should be clear.
The long term correlations are changing now, it will take some time before the final solution.
Again today is a weekend and a monthly close, I suggest flat in case of scalper's orders are trapped in wick tail for a very long time.
Thank you for your likes!
Reply
OK, so in this case, Since gold will be down, CNY will be going up after 1st October 2016 ?
as predicted by this graph: http://i.imgur.com/8NPFmos.png
Reply
The link is my chart too. I suggest you read the gold chart again.
Reply
albertwt Victor.Y.F
OK, I can see multiple chart as a picture on this page.
Reply
Huston we have problems.
As the chart showing us the DXY is representing the USA inflation or we can say EURO now is the measuring currency for the inflation. Usually, we always have USD as the price measuring currency because EURO is not a popular currency for all over world countries markets, they are all aiming to the USD for pricing all kinds of commodities. From 2015 CHF black swan the correlation is inversed by manipulating from FRB and SNB. For my point of view they're all selling the gold now because USD is the inflation but not the gold.
But we have Trump wins in 2016. We now know he is cutting tax from companies and repealing health insurance plan. The incomes of US treasury will be less and only double the US bunds can help the budget of US government finance. We can not rule out that FRB will rise rates in Dec. 2016 because the Trump wins will change it. It's very hard to change the long term correlation like that without an other black swan situation. We're watching it very carefully if any thing can change it back. That means if the inflation is weak gold should fall and DXY should rise.

Here is the thing:
1, correlation goes on without black swan, inflation up DXY up gold down, inflation down DXY down gold up.
2, correlation changes back to normal by black swan, inflation up DXY down gold up, infaltion down DXY up gold down.
And from my point of view NO hike in Dec.
Reply
Harmonic patterns are building. On this.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
There're 2 positions, 1 position take profits now and 1 position free riding with stop break even.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
Now. it's becoming 1-2-3 traders favorites and an head shoulder PO target 1216 should be reached as Batman pattern ATL 1.128.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
Harmonic patterns are beautiful things, aren't they?
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
Reenter here, 2 positions.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
There's a serious fighting in 1206, 1 positon take profits, 1 positon free riding.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
Trend-line broken, riding higher. Pitchfork reflection target 1216.66.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
Trend line retested, the beast should be riding higher highs.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
It could go higher but PRZ is an area, take profits now.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
The original target 1216.66 is hit, we should see some extreme prices with RSI weakness. The fractal resonance quad swing lights are going red and green like the last impulse, a pullback is happenning soon but it won't go below 1208 for keeping those huge sellers bodies trapped there.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
In case of breaking 1206 we should go to 1181.83 if not we should go higher.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
As long as the trend line holding this beast may go higher before the BOJ interests rates decision on 31st. Jan. Also you guys can see the key fightings around 1206. There're huge sellers bodies exposed, trend broken and huge buyers take it back.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
There's a new high was made at 1219.99, flat now all positions out.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
Re-enter here along with the trend-line, 2 positions.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
Seeing something exhausting trying from sellers, could be ending soon.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
Green lights on, a little early but it's ok.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
Green lights on again, still holding longs and add more 2 positions here. We're at 0.618 EW truncation and 0.618 fib convergence. Risk is managed BTW.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
This's not a buying signal. I don't look at USDJPY for trading the correlation but if it can help me understanding the EW structure then it's ok. Also Yen could seperate from gold with XAUJPY's rising. Technically the trend line is broken and we should find some trading range.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
Re-enter here, UJ 114.00 as the ceiling.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
The classic EW's problem is the scale of the wave, I agree the OZ is a 5 wave but how deep it'll retrace? It could be very small and less than 0.236 after that an other 5 wave could happen.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
This is NOT signal! Now still very hard to say it's ending or it's beginning. I'm looking for UJ 114 ceiling for more clues and the stop should be daily close above it.
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Victor.Y.F PRO Victor.Y.F
This comment ends here. I found that speculators were using this as a signal. It'll be against the order itself. I would like to short this one from the bounce off.
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