GOLD: It's Time to Be Very Careful
Hello traders,
A lot of people continue to be over-exuberant on where Gold will go with the consensus seemingly to new highs beyond 1700: based on trend analysis we can see why. But will it actually? Analyzing history and other data-sets say not - and this is likely a "suckers" rally.
While manipulation can be fierce in the commodity market ranging from oil to Gold and Silver, it appears Gold could come down sharply from the current to 1620-1645 ranges.
Other Important Data-Sets
- When the FOMO minutes release this coming week from the panic rate-cuts the tone may come off as "panic" to the algo bots resulting in a Gold liquidity sell-off
- Leveraged loans and their securities (collateralized security obligations) remain under a crunch which could result in a longer-term recession (depression) and financial instability
- If US jobless data continues to worsen, what may initially be bullish for Gold from the past 2 weeks may turn into a liquidity sell-off as the length of this downturn becomes evidently longer than originally though
- The US Dollar (DXY) is more than likely in a final Wave 5 to near or beyond the 105 level. While Gold and the Dollar can rise in the near-term simultaneously, one must give-way in the longer-term. As such, this time around, Gold should fall as the Dollar strengthens and remains strong for the next 2 or so months
The Most Important Data-Set
- The fact remains Gold is still theoretically in its corrective cycle until at-least the middle of May. Even though this environment has certainly skewed this current cycle, it should not alter the underlying fact that Gold will likely make a new low below 1450 sometime in Late April to Early May before undergoing a 2 to 3 week consolidative phase before the generational break-out begins.
The Point
- While Gold could rise to test the 1620-1645 area, investors have to be very careful. While this current phase appears to be heavily skewed due to extreme volatility, it still has almost every other factor similar to every other phase in Gold's history.
Analysis suggests Gold will correct much lower and a much better buying opportunity will be present within the next month or two.
- zSplit
A lot of people continue to be over-exuberant on where Gold will go with the consensus seemingly to new highs beyond 1700: based on trend analysis we can see why. But will it actually? Analyzing history and other data-sets say not - and this is likely a "suckers" rally.
While manipulation can be fierce in the commodity market ranging from oil to Gold and Silver, it appears Gold could come down sharply from the current to 1620-1645 ranges.
Other Important Data-Sets
- When the FOMO minutes release this coming week from the panic rate-cuts the tone may come off as "panic" to the algo bots resulting in a Gold liquidity sell-off
- Leveraged loans and their securities (collateralized security obligations) remain under a crunch which could result in a longer-term recession (depression) and financial instability
- If US jobless data continues to worsen, what may initially be bullish for Gold from the past 2 weeks may turn into a liquidity sell-off as the length of this downturn becomes evidently longer than originally though
- The US Dollar (DXY) is more than likely in a final Wave 5 to near or beyond the 105 level. While Gold and the Dollar can rise in the near-term simultaneously, one must give-way in the longer-term. As such, this time around, Gold should fall as the Dollar strengthens and remains strong for the next 2 or so months
The Most Important Data-Set
- The fact remains Gold is still theoretically in its corrective cycle until at-least the middle of May. Even though this environment has certainly skewed this current cycle, it should not alter the underlying fact that Gold will likely make a new low below 1450 sometime in Late April to Early May before undergoing a 2 to 3 week consolidative phase before the generational break-out begins.
The Point
- While Gold could rise to test the 1620-1645 area, investors have to be very careful. While this current phase appears to be heavily skewed due to extreme volatility, it still has almost every other factor similar to every other phase in Gold's history.
Analysis suggests Gold will correct much lower and a much better buying opportunity will be present within the next month or two.
- zSplit
Trade active:
Once Gold fails to hold the 1600 level which could be as early as tomorrow, this will be the indicator to open a giant short.
This is likely the start of a building massive sell-off in Gold and Silver.
You have been warned!
- zSplit
This is likely the start of a building massive sell-off in Gold and Silver.
You have been warned!
- zSplit
Comment:
UPDATE
This idea is still valid. Its too early to say if Gold has topped, however, as the market gets pumped to 50% retracement and a likely impending wave down in equities, we could see a double whammy for Gold:
1) Risk-on (people buying stocks right now)
2) Next equity sell-off resulting in liquid asset sell-offs (Gold/Silver)
- zSplit
This idea is still valid. Its too early to say if Gold has topped, however, as the market gets pumped to 50% retracement and a likely impending wave down in equities, we could see a double whammy for Gold:
1) Risk-on (people buying stocks right now)
2) Next equity sell-off resulting in liquid asset sell-offs (Gold/Silver)
- zSplit
Gold is currently trading in the "dumb-zone" which is a wide range in 1615-1680. Based on Gold cycles, if this is simply a skewed like due to volatility than this current peak should be less than the first peak set over a month ago (1680) which should be lower than the temporary top (1705).
If this cycle holds true to how Gold has acted over the past 100 years, this means Gold should top out somewhere between 1645 and 1670.
My idea will remain valid unless Gold essentially makes new highs above 1705.
A break below 1600 and a close below 1600 indicates my theory will pan-out.
- zSplit