chessnut
Short

Looking to scalp gold short as ABC upswing completes.

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
360 14 5
This is a high confidence set up, looking to sell on wave c of ABC (full ABC not illustrated) Wave c always unfolds in 5 waves, so this wave (which is impulsive) needs one more leg to the upside. the sell target will be 0. 5-0 .618 of wave iii             , but only once 5 waves have unfolded. because the larger picture is an ABC, the downside target is very big, possibly on a larger scale aswell, making risk reward at least 1:5.
We have just seen iii (v) of C. looking to sell as it creeps up to the .618 fib of the III wave. could be a pin point trade!
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wave v of V is ready to take place. I want to sell if a see a clar fractal on the 1m chart, or at 1310. it should not pass 1320, and will not likely pass 1313.
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time to short.
+1 Reply
hmm... sideways.... well I've made 300 pips... the hardest thing though is always... when to exit? We haven't had the downward movement to the amount we were expecting
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chessnut jago25_98
it's all going to plan. sometimes there can be a violent spike down but not always. the divergance is strong, we just have to wait for all the bots to turn. I am confident we will not see any further highs break from this point, and we will certainly not pass 1320 if the trade is valid.
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chessnut jago25_98
This trade has the weight of a four hour EW pattern behind it. The fifth wave has taken a lot of time to unfold because the move is losing momentum. My stoploss is at 1320 and my limit is at least 5x that for the next few days. so far going as planned, just slower than illustrated.
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snapshot
Hang in there it's coming soon.
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stoplosses can now be placed at 1315.
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snapshot

this is the bigger picture. worth waiting for.
+1 Reply
jago25_98 chessnut
hmm... the count is great but for some reason I don't like it. It's probably because I've already had a win on the 1h TF, influencing my decision. I've reopened expecting a small bounce up on the 5M TF one2one2 pattern up to 1311 somewhere... but with a smaller position size. SL 1312, TP 1301 rather than 1284.

If volume pattern repeats we could see a slow grind up again on the smaller TF to test our resolve. That's easier to handle for me with a smaller lot size...
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chessnut jago25_98
Good luck, manage it as best as you can. it's getting volatile, although seems like critical levels are being respected.
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seems like it has finally come, without hitting stoploss either. I guess I should have called it a medium term short. lots of room to the downside to come potentially.
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jago25_98 chessnut
unfortunately I had set a 8hr expiration for this 5/15m TF scalp. Maybe I could have set that for longer...
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chessnut jago25_98
better luck next time. In the end it wasnt really a scalp like I said it would be, but it's always great to use EW termination points for stoplosses, especially when there is a larger timeframe involved. a scalp may turn into a long term hold of one is lucky. Im bout to publish a great opportunity in USDJPY, similar kind.
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