goldenBear88

#1,800.80 showing High durability / Short-term Support is near

Short
FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Gold's general commentary: Only a limited amount of Technical data can be used before such important Macro events, as market hybrid movements are visible on every pore of the markets, especially on metals. The CPI provided the initial direction (with Intra-day point variable on #36 points first downwards, then upwards, which is disastrous side Swing, catastrophic for smaller margins), as my expectation is that most Investors are in a wait for how market will digest current DX developments. If the speculative counter theory before such deals is correct, then this early E.U. session Selling, should result in an even more comfortable Selling spot after the announcement is made. This is all of course very speculative, as DX is about to break my Bullish reversal threshold on Weekly chart and if it does, I will add more Selling and Gold becomes fully Bearish on this Month’s scale. I will choose not to Trade this Volatility , as recapitulation from the past #2-Week horizon was that every High impact event turned sideways (even though that forecast was met) and final pointer that Gold is on unprecedented Volatility , is DX on #52-Week High, which had less or no impact on Gold . See how yesterday’s session Selling sequence and Support break on DX , resulted as an strong recovery on Gold , which wasn’t the case on Bearish side, indicating that Price-action cannot be approached Technically. My practical suggestion for Short-term Traders would be to remain off the markets, until trend appears.


Technical analysis: The Volatility is still high however and Gold may look to set a new Support zone first (my estimate #1,772.80 - #1,778.80) before hitting #1,750.80. Gold is approaching the #1,750.80 psychological barrier on Spot prices as I expect it to be realised before Wednesday on possible Bearish leg ahead. Despite the fact that DX is still on a Medium-term Ascending Channel and well Supported on Daily Chart , Gold is pushed Lower (apart from the obvious Bonds Sell-off effect) as Usd-Jpy is soaring near it's August Weekly High which added enormous Bearish pressure on Gold which I was expecting. After testing #1,778.80 and possible break, Sellers may arise and initiate takedown towards #1,750.80. Remember, historically last time Gold (spot) hit #1,605.80 on an downtrend it easily broke to #65 points down in continuation (#1,540.80 Monthly Support), same scenario occurred with #1,700.80 barrier. Unless the DX miraculously devalue it’s Price-action, Gold is on huge Bearish momentum.


My position: Gold entered Neutral Rectangle , and side Swings that Gold Traders are witnessing are usual part of current High Volatility belt. As Price-action engaged almost #14 point decline, I am not confident in Intra-day Selling continuation, as I am expecting slight lower number on Retail Sales, which could hurt the DX even more (on Intra-day basis), which can postpone ultimate Selling sequence. If reading is above the forecast and #1,780.80 breaks, I might initiate Selling order calling for #1,750.80 extension (strict Risk management rules).

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Professional market analyst and Financial consultant with over #8 Years experience. I specialize Gold market using specific proven mathematical models. I provide market insights and Professional guidance.