Blue route is strong favorite, after everything has been considered. This means sideways to up and breaking 2075 by 10/07, topping 2500 zone in early November. This would be followed by roughly 20% correction that would take 60 days to complete in an EXTREMELY heart-breaking manner.
The black route is the most bullish outcome that while theoretically possible, probably won't happen. If we see 2100 by 10/02, this would be a coin flip.
I do not see a legit bearish outcome without 2450 getting hit. In the (what I consider to be) unlikely scenario that an 18xx number gets tagged first week of October, then this implies a 2700 target in late January or early February for dark red route. However the blue route is a massive favorite. Regressionally-speaking, black route would be more likely to happen than orange, red, or dark red routes. The green route is the most annoying way to 2500. While it's a massive dog vs other bullish outcomes, it's still likelier than a visit to 1850. Not worth discussing at this time.
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FOR CONTEXT, PLEASE READ PREVIOUS POSTS:
UPDATE 3>>
UPDATE 2>>
UPDATE 1>>
ORIGINAL IDEA
BEARISH TO BULLISH
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Some food for thought? This is Varied-Ratio Regression forecasting I've finished this last month. Here is an example of VRR detailing prior to forecasting:
1 of 6:
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2 of 6:
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3 of 6:
4 of 6:
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Above chart was 5 of 6.
Here's 6 of 6:
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So what does that mean, the 6 charts?? It means that which ever way you cut this, the move after 9/25 is very likely to be massively up. And also very likely to top by 11/11. How high?? My math says 2510. This new VRR forecasting is a MASSIVE MASSIVE improvement over 6-angles of PIRL previously presented in June/July to forecast the the massive move to 2000s.
How so? It provides 3X the evidence and will make 1/3 of the mistakes of previous forecasts. It is also true that it will attempt less specific forecasts than before with exception of specific situations that happen but 6-7 times a year per instrument.
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Basically, I have this rough draft of next 5 months in mind:
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Note: chart above to reference outline only. Not meant to contrast regression angles or ratios.
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Until next week:
What I've learned with VRR is WHEN it's right to make derivative chart and when it's not. Basically there are times when prices swing in a zone constantly w/o really affecting longer regressions. In those situations, it's a complete waste of time to forecast zig zags. If the trend holds for those 6 charts to 9/23-ish, it would be worth the time for a 6-week derivative map. This makes it so much more worth the time to make even more valuable to have.
Awesome one Sir!
I will surely be pestering you later in Okt/Nov to hear your thoughts on price action after the correction. For some of us, long term goldbugs, that's what matters the most
I will surely be pestering you later in Okt/Nov to hear your thoughts on price action after the correction. For some of us, long term goldbugs, that's what matters the most