goldenBear88

Indecision candles on Gold / Bull end is near

Short
OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Nothing more to add to today's ranged Price-action as the Hourly 4 chart couldn't be more Neutral. It is more than evident that the market is waiting for a catalyst which in my opinion is Fed rate decision, announcing plan for quarterly fractal . In the meantime, my advice to Short-term Traders is to stay away from the markets since Swings are new norm – capital preservation is equally important as a Profitable call. Yesterday was the one of the biggest daily rises for Gold in recent times and needless to say the Hourly 4 chart was critically Overbought. On the other hand though, on the Daily timeframe , Gold is just Neutral, as the Price-action is about to touch the Hourly 1 #MA50 for the first time since July #21. I have stated lately how Overbought Gold was and how a mix of data (the Pending Home Sales were Bullish for Gold ) and the Covid-19 outbreak (institutions withdrawing Profits from riskier assets and moving their capital to Gold representing Safe-haven) was extremely Bearish on the Short-term. This can get even worse if the Stock markets start recovering (negative correlation with Gold ). Even though that Traders know me as an Medium-term Seller, I have to note that this is full Bullish domination and every dip should be bought (if #1,900.80 breaks however, it should be a call for #1,880.80 extension), above is a call for Bullish spike up. See how Gold is directly correlated with Stock markets – strong decline and Bullish gap fill on Stock markets resulted as an same scenario on Gold – strong Bullish gap fill and then significant decline. Gold is consolidating since the start of the E.U. session. This indicates how Monday's parabolic rise was purely related to fear and what the Gold market does right now is attempting to find an equilibrium. If it wasn't for this # +0.74% today on the Stock markets, Gold would be considerably lower. As expected the Hourly 1 Resistance held today so Short-term Sellers on that level can book their intra-day Profit and call it for today. Personally I remain without a Position waiting to engage my Sell orders with possible historic fall/correction on Gold (my estimation shows strong decline of #148$). Best ways. Important: besides Stock markets, DX is also one of my main points of interests, since when DX starts recovering – it is a sign for me that Gold should shortly be on a Selling sequence.
My Telegram channel: https://t.me/goldenBear88

Professional market analyst and Financial consultant with over #8 Years experience. I specialize Gold market using specific proven mathematical models. I provide market insights and Professional guidance.

Comments

Agreed, the DX is in the oversold territory while gold is in the overbought RSI zone. The narrative for gold is fear - A pure psychological play with limited fundamentals. Gold took off way too fast, especially with the news outlets advertising golds performance leading to FOMO as well. I personally believe there's a little more upside for gold before it ultimately peaks (close to 2k).
Lets see!

Great analysis!
+2 Reply
@RichR333, Many thanks for this excellent elaboration and review of my commentary. Your input is always welcomed!
Reply
RichR333 goldenBear88
@goldenBear88, You're most welcome!
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I believe we have just witnesses the Blow-Off top in Gold.
+2 Reply
@tonydcco, Probably!
Reply
bull spike up
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