The West societies is struggling with debts, decreasing the export that have powered Chinese growth. China’s has been forced to sell foreign reserves, buying Yuan to keep it steady vs US dollars, but at the same time profit from international event such ad Brexit, to decrease it silently, against major currency. The weak exports are helped by Yuan depreciation, buti it won’t be enough to bust the economy. The Chinese stock market is largely closed to foreigners and it’s more difficult to see a reflaction in the global trends. Banking sector it’s off the official books. In addition to the crumbling situation, we also have the capital fleeing: overflows by overinvoicing imports from tax haven island such as Samoa.
US can’t control the red dragon and its currency and will rise accuse to increase tension. Trump will win the election and enforce the military spending, multiplying the presence in the Chinese South Sea. China is intesifying training and drills (http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/13/politics/china-military-south-china-sea-report/ ), building military bases out of the water, to bolster their claim on Oil and gas fields ( http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-01/china's-hawks-pressing-for-forceful-south-china-sea-response/7677434 ). A maritime standhoff will rise the incertitude on stock market and shipping, especially for physical . The spike of OIL price will drug down the possibility of a fast recovery.
Chinese growth is unbalanched, uncoordinated and unsustainable. China need to face this impleasent and unavoidable phase of market cycle with internal/external pressure and only after having spoored its mistake, it wil be back on truck, full of surprises for the ones who bet against.