GOLD - Midnight short squeeze

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
2379 22 48
Though we broke below the Fibonacci 61.8 retracement on Thursday the daily close is still above that level.
At the beginning of this year we printed a nice rally from 1045 to 1375$. The 61.8% pullback level of this rally is at 1171$. The Fibonacci 61.8 retracement is a very important level. If we are still in a bull market price shouldn't close below that level on the weekly basis. The intraday chart can break below but price must recover by the end of the day or next day the latest. This is exactly what happened today. We tagged 1161 today but price quickly reversed despite the good data today.
As I'm typing this we are printing a daily swing low again. It's the 4th swing low in this intermediate decline. Last year the 4th swing low was working so hopefully this swing will not get erased....
All the indicators are showing to the upside. 1hr and 4hr charts are showing divergencies...
MACD will cross over soon
RSI left overbought
SlowSToch is turning up
TSI crossed over

LONG ENTRY The perfect entry was at 1161-1166 in the afternoon , but I still think entering here is not late as we have only 10$ behind us. If gold             is still in a bull market we are going to print a higher high above 1375...
Agree with the thought that there is a temporary bottom for Gold at current levels but do not agree that we are in a Bull Mkt.
I do believe that Gold will get a short move up with in a week or so but can not believe a level as mentioned like 1375 or whatever ...
One should keep in mind that we r living in a world with fast moving events & uncertainties so why predict into long term future ... e.g. just look at what happened to the Oil price in just a matter of few days. None had predicted the same ... not even OPEC knew that they will be able to pull the deal ..
So, why not take small steps at a time ... and learn from those steps and build on it ... I mean one needs to learn to walk before learn to run ....
@chinoo, Dude, check Arpi's ideas, he predicted oil price 2weeks ago! "LONG
OIL - Game of ranges" idea, with 2 possible scenarios and two of them took place and tradable!

what r u talking about?
+2 Reply
hi Arpi, for my learning, if we assume this is the bottom, what signs/data would lead you to think this will be a quick recovery vs a u-shaped recovery like we saw last year which took about 3-4 months?
@NihalCassim, LAst year we finished the bear market with a long bottoming process. If it's a new bull market it should be a fast recovery after this ICL. Not a cup & handle type but a V shaped recovery with powerful short squeezes, shallow pullbacks. Not giving any chance for the sideliners to enter.
+1 Reply
Nice Apri, thanks for Sharing. Certainly feels like a bottom with the action right now.
+2 Reply
Its curious how last December 2015 NFP increased the expectations from 200k to 211k and gold gain 25$ in the next 3 hours. It was priced in ?
ARPI what if NFP is bullish ?
What if FED hikes at .50 or .75 points instead of the expected .25 points ... Gold will be at 1045 again
+1 Reply
Ronnee Mannnassser
@Mannnassser, can not see anything but a token hike, as they have cornered themselves really,,anymore would just, cook , there economy over the top. I would imagine...interest rates have already increased with the trump hype...I feel India is having a big effect on gold at present.
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