chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Midnight short squeeze

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
2349 22 45
Though we broke below the Fibonacci 61.8 retracement on Thursday the daily close is still above that level.
At the beginning of this year we printed a nice rally from 1045 to 1375$. The 61.8% pullback level of this rally is at 1171$. The Fibonacci 61.8 retracement is a very important level. If we are still in a bull market price shouldn't close below that level on the weekly basis. The intraday chart can break below but price must recover by the end of the day or next day the latest. This is exactly what happened today. We tagged 1161 today but price quickly reversed despite the good data today.
As I'm typing this we are printing a daily swing low again. It's the 4th swing low in this intermediate decline. Last year the 4th swing low was working so hopefully this swing will not get erased....
Indicators
All the indicators are showing to the upside. 1hr and 4hr charts are showing divergencies...
MACD will cross over soon
RSI left overbought
SlowSToch is turning up
TSI crossed over

LONG ENTRY The perfect entry was at 1161-1166 in the afternoon , but I still think entering here is not late as we have only 10$ behind us. If gold             is still in a bull market we are going to print a higher high above 1375...
I like your thoughts, I do think we are still in a bull market and will see higher highs sometime next year. We have NFP tomorrow and the rate hike decision coming up in a few weeks so it should be very volatile for gold. Also I see weakness and USD/JPY & USD, so we'll see how it plays out.
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Shall we wait for a double bottom at 1161-1166?
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Hi APRi, have small entry 1162, however, with perhaps still good data to come, more downside is possible until NFP report, may bounce again before the FEDs maybe hike, then more downside, before we can be positive the bottom has been reached....maybe 1140-50 area...However, any entries from this point should be manageable for most players! Thanks for all your ideas, charts and thoughts..not many people, if any could pick what the FBI did pre election or the Indian PM did, day of US election!! Cheers ron
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One Cycle Analyst I follow from time to time mentioned that we are in the timing window of an 8 year cycle low and that if we aren't able to re-take $1200 very soon, it could spell trouble for Gold. Thoughts?
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Jamie-Dimon Nightstar
@Nightstar,
so many cycle analysts out there. Most of them are morons or con men.
Bo Polny: complete desaster
Charles Nenner: strange
Larry Edelson: poor timing, half of his predictions wrong
Wolfgang Bogen: Mosty wrong since at least 6 months
Martin Armstrong: Rather good calls on gold, dollar, Dow since 2011. (don't know his opinion about gold right now, as specific timings are only for subscribers)

Eric Hadik's 2016 gold predictions were rather accurate so far. He said 2016 would be the "golden year"; gold would go up in H1 2016, then correct in H2 forming a low in November, which should be lower then the June 2016 low ($1200), but higher than the Dec 2015 low ($1050). From Dec 2016 onwards he predicts gold to rise more steadily throughout 2017 into 2018.
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Nightstar Jamie-Dimon
@Jamie-Dimon I've been trading far too long to follow any of the Morons (as you say) mentioned above. The one I was referring to in this case is from Gold Predict and he's been rather spot on with his analysis. Gary Savage is another good one in my opinion...

I've heard of Eric but never looked into it.. maybe I should. I always like to hear a different perspective. Thx for the info!
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@Nightstar, Chartfreak.com is excellent ... imho ;)
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bertcoin PRO Jamie-Dimon
@Jamie-Dimon, @Nightstar, Been watching Marty Armstrong since he was doing paper newsletters from jail in 2009. He's unbelievably accurate in the big picture with his cycles. He's definitely calling $1000 in early 2017 because we've "elected" monthly bearish levels consistently last couple months and not broken monthly bullish levels since mid year's peak. He has too many indicators (yearly, quarterly, monthly) all pointing that way. Been watching Gold Predict as well and like his analysis. ProJack (tntsunrise) for truly technical looks at shorter moves. So Arpi: Bull, Gold Predict and ProJack: Inflection point with either direction and Marty Armstrong: Bear, It's a toss up! I'm definitely playing very small amounts until Marty puts on the green light, then I'm backing up the truck long.
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Nightstar bertcoin
@bertcoin I have mixed feelings when it comes to Marty Armstrong. He was calling for sub $1000 back in December 2015 and kinda missed the bottom in Gold. Gold Predict was your suggestion btw.. Thank you for that :)

How's your LABU trade? I've made a bit of money on LABD as of late. Italy's Referendum on December 4th could spell trouble for the Markets. Get ready!
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@bertcoin, Could you please put the link of Gold Predict ?
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bertcoin PRO AhmedKhattab
@AhmedKhattab, https://goldpredict.com
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@bertcoin, Thnx
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What if FED hikes at .50 or .75 points instead of the expected .25 points ... Gold will be at 1045 again
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Ronnee Mannnassser
@Mannnassser, can not see anything but a token hike, as they have cornered themselves really,,anymore would just, cook , there economy over the top. I would imagine...interest rates have already increased with the trump hype...I feel India is having a big effect on gold at present.
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ARPI what if NFP is bullish ?
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Its curious how last December 2015 NFP increased the expectations from 200k to 211k and gold gain 25$ in the next 3 hours. It was priced in ?
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Nice Apri, thanks for Sharing. Certainly feels like a bottom with the action right now.
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hi Arpi, for my learning, if we assume this is the bottom, what signs/data would lead you to think this will be a quick recovery vs a u-shaped recovery like we saw last year which took about 3-4 months?
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@NihalCassim, LAst year we finished the bear market with a long bottoming process. If it's a new bull market it should be a fast recovery after this ICL. Not a cup & handle type but a V shaped recovery with powerful short squeezes, shallow pullbacks. Not giving any chance for the sideliners to enter.
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Agree with the thought that there is a temporary bottom for Gold at current levels but do not agree that we are in a Bull Mkt.
I do believe that Gold will get a short move up with in a week or so but can not believe a level as mentioned like 1375 or whatever ...
One should keep in mind that we r living in a world with fast moving events & uncertainties so why predict into long term future ... e.g. just look at what happened to the Oil price in just a matter of few days. None had predicted the same ... not even OPEC knew that they will be able to pull the deal ..
So, why not take small steps at a time ... and learn from those steps and build on it ... I mean one needs to learn to walk before learn to run ....
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RAZRus chinoo
@chinoo, Dude, check Arpi's ideas, he predicted oil price 2weeks ago! "LONG
OIL - Game of ranges" idea, with 2 possible scenarios and two of them took place and tradable!

what r u talking about?
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http://sharechart.etoro.com/IW8D0D7ONH.png
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