XAU/USD | Gold Crashes 27% – Is $4000 the Next Target?

Mar 23

By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that after the previous TA, the market has entered one of the most aggressive bearish phases in the past decades. Over the past 20 days, Gold has dropped more than $1300 (13,000 pips), and in a broader move, it has declined over $1500 (15,000 pips) from the $5600 high down to the $4100 level, marking a 27% heavy fall. This kind of move clearly shows that the market is under extreme selling pressure, driven by the ongoing global energy crisis and oil-related tensions. Currently, Gold is trading around the $4267 region, showing a weak corrective bounce after the massive drop.

At this stage, the overall bearish structure remains dominant, and as long as the macro pressure from the energy market continues, we can expect further downside in Gold. In my view, there is even a realistic scenario where Gold could enter the $3000 channel if selling pressure continues to build. Following this massive drop, multiple liquidity voids have been created, which are expected to be filled over time. These imbalances also form key supply zones for potential SELL positions, where price is likely to react.

The key supply zones to watch are:
$4329 – $4454, $4637 – $4737, $4803 – $4870, and $4969 – $5042.

On the downside, the only major demand zone ahead remains the $4000 level, which now becomes the most critical support for the next phase of the market.

As always, this chart will continue to be updated step by step as price reacts to the next important levels.

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Best Regards , Arman Shaban

Mar 24

Trade active

By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that price followed the expected scenario and started to move higher to fill the liquidity voids created after the recent aggressive drop. Following Trump’s tweet, Gold experienced a strong impulsive move and surged from around $4250 to $4500, confirming that the market was actively targeting these imbalance zones. However, after reaching its bearish breaker block, strong selling pressure stepped in once again and triggered a corrective move. Currently, Gold is trading around the $4410 region, showing signs of pullback after completing part of the liquidity fill.

At this stage, the broader bearish structure remains intact, and I still expect the remaining liquidity gaps to be filled gradually. As price approaches the previously mentioned supply zones, we need to closely monitor price reactions, as these areas are highly likely to trigger strong rejections and continuation to the downside. The reaction of price around those key levels discussed in the previous analysis will be critical in determining the next major move.

Mar 25

Trade closed: target reached

By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that price continued to follow the expected scenario and moved higher to fill more of the liquidity voids created after the recent aggressive drop. Following this move, Gold extended its bullish correction and rallied up to around $4600, before facing strong selling pressure once again and dropping toward the $4519 level. Currently, Gold is trading around the $4550 region, showing ongoing volatility as the market balances between supply and demand.

At this stage, the broader bearish structure remains intact, but the short-term corrective move is still in play. I expect Gold to continue pushing higher in order to fill remaining imbalances and move into the next key supply zones. The next major supply zone to watch is between $4640 and $4740, where strong reactions and potential bearish continuation are highly likely. As always, the reaction of price around these key levels will be critical in determining the next major move.