chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - GIANT TRIANGLE

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
5291 70 86
3 months ago
It seems never ending. The bad news for the bears - and the good news for the bulls - that we are still in the triangle.
The good news: it seems to me that miners bottomed yesterday. And gold             might printed the DCL yesterday also.
As I'm writing this we are very close - less than 1$- from the daily swing.

Yellen speech today will be important for gold's direction.
If she hits a hawkish tone - I doubt that - we might break down from the triangle. Even if that happens I don't think we will break below the last DCL (1310.5).
If she hits a dovish tone we might immediately rally up to the upper trendline of the triangle. At that level I would like to see as price stays above the green trendline ( Bearmarket's trendline from the all time tops)

Indicators
RSI has give in the sign of the bottom. We left the overbought levels on the daily chart .

I think the FED 's last chance for the rate hike was the last meeting. As the elections are very close the only thing left for them is speaking about hiking but nothing will happen.

In the worst case we can be in this triangle 3-4 weeks from now.
3 months ago
Comment: DAILY SWING LOW PRINTED:
We broke above yesterday's high.
Just be sure that a few people already reading the text of the speech.....
3 months ago
Comment: And the dollar is not doing anything.
Just imagine if we break down from that flag in the dollar ...
snapshot
3 months ago
Comment: I just hope I'm not alone on the bull train?!
3 months ago
Comment: What a volatile market....
Holding the position.
At the end we will not get a green marubozu just an inverted hammer.
We were going up on high volume and bears pushed down the price at the low volume period.
The inverted hammer also a trend changing pattern.
snapshot
3 months ago
Comment: As it's a continuation pattern the lower trendline of the triangle will hold.
Viking83 PRO
3 months ago
The USD has been moving slow up to her speech, do you rule out short-term rally of the USD that forces Gld into a ICL? 2nd ICL occured early in the previous bull-run:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/kL5hCDtt/
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Viking83
3 months ago
THis is an absolutely possible scenario. I just can't look into Yellen's clever head.
If she starts to come out things what will force the dollar to rally . Anything can happen.
But I still think we will not take out the the last DCL. It's too early for an ICL timewise.
+1 Reply
Viking83 PRO chartwatchers
3 months ago
1st ICL in the last bull-run was 175 days after bottom, 13.4.2009. If I interpret the chart correct, the second ICL occured 6.7.2009, that is 84 days after 13.4.
1st ICL in this bull run was 182 days after the bottom, 30.5.2016. Adding 84 days leaves us at 31.8.2016. I have not studied the USD cycle at the same time last time though, so there might be difference here. I still think there is room for further downside to the weekly RSI by comparing those two bull-runs. This one is at 50 %. This one is surely a very tough nut to crack. Taking down leverage :)
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Viking83
3 months ago
Now the USD is driving gold I think. So when the USD breaks down that big range I posted then gold will produce some kind of extreme rally.
And the FED doesn't want the strong dollar anymore. So I'm holding my longs.
+1 Reply
Viking83 PRO chartwatchers
3 months ago
Agreed that USD drive gold these days. However, gold has been going down together with USD a bit lately. That leave some room for a short term rally up to the triangle top IMO even though there will be a short term rally in USD.
Reply
adyshul
3 months ago
Difficult to say what will happen, they say that US economy needs one more trillion $ to be at the at the surface level and with hiking the interest rate it will be harder to achieve but then on the other side we have other signs like the elections, the brexit thing , broken Europe economy, oil glut, China slowdown .. what do you think ? I have a feeling that they will be selfish again and announce a hike so they can protect for future fluctuations ..
Reply
Sebonnaci
3 months ago
its funny how we can see what we want to see in a chart..
Reply
CalGreens
3 months ago
I followed your ideas and trend analysis, but very seldom post. Many thanks for your hard work. Very helpful.
Reply
CalGreens CalGreens
3 months ago
I am still on the Long train.....
Reply
Staxs
3 months ago
dxy getting slammed
Reply
Lagune PRO
3 months ago
Im all aboard 1321 love your charts im targetting 1376 maybe 1410
Reply
lbg01 PRO
3 months ago
you are not
Reply
epalazzo
3 months ago
I'm still in. Thanks for asking. Great job!
Reply
Hi Arpi, No man - half of my money is in Silver now. Last purchases were made 2 days ago. If we break that triangle we TP is $1600 according to my Elliott waves count. I was playing with those whole night yesterday. Assuming we are in bull market :)
Reply
pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
3 months ago
Here is the count. It would be nice to know if it is in line with your count:
snapshot

Reply
Viking83 PRO
3 months ago
Definitely not alone, converted 50 % of my JNUG to GDXJ and loaded the train heavily when the clear direction was taken. 3500 JNUG are smiling all the way to the bank. Good it was a dovish performance :) USD is getting crushed!
+1 Reply
Viking83 PRO Viking83
3 months ago
Wow, sold out at 23. The USD-rally scenario is now in play to break its short-term trendline up before dropping like a rock.
+1 Reply
flovax
3 months ago
Finally green day everywhere in my portfolio. LABU, GOLD, GDX, NGAS, OIL... Thanks a lot Chartwatchers!
+1 Reply
ice_holly01 flovax
3 months ago
Same here! :)
+1 Reply
jinyuji210
3 months ago
I am in
+1 Reply
Superkloton
3 months ago
Don’t worry, I’m in since the beginning. Man, this is the most awesome feeling ever. A lot of my positions where deep in minus and now everything is big in profit! :D
+1 Reply
Thank you Arpi for teaching me. It has given me the confidence to hold my positions and not second guess myself. I thank you for my disabled brother who is also benefitting from your gifts, as well.
+1 Reply
TPparadigma
3 months ago
You are not alone on Bull train.
I bought from 1320.
Knowing the BS of yellen speach are we printing DCH today? :)
+1 Reply
adyshul
3 months ago
I'm on the gold train since the beginning of the year, so you're not alone.. let's see how it ends today ..
+1 Reply
SchweizerGeld
3 months ago
Reclaiming lost ground today . . . $SA $SAND Expecting gold to breakout of the triangle in September XAUUSD - Long
+1 Reply
When (not if) we break out this triangle the move will be very fast and furious. It is extension wave.
+1 Reply
HaoLiu
3 months ago
Big pips day for me. Thanks for all the posts on oil and gold.
+1 Reply
Yellen
3 months ago
Smart. Very smart.
+1 Reply
Noobsnoot
3 months ago
What a roller coaster ride with gold and I'm with you on the long train, arpi.. btw, what's your tp in this current trade, buddy?
+1 Reply
Nightstar
3 months ago
Looks like my new indicator (GDLP) might be working after all :)
+1 Reply
Nightstar Nightstar
3 months ago
1 hour later: But then again.. maybe not, Lol! This Market is messed up.
+1 Reply
lbg01 PRO
3 months ago
what just happened?
Reply
PF7
3 months ago
Ooops something is not right with the train!
Reply
TPparadigma
3 months ago
Bull train become bear train again.. wtf is going on!!
+1 Reply
Noobsnoot TPparadigma
3 months ago
it's -1200 pips since I jumped in. He's right, wtf is going on???
+1 Reply
TPparadigma Noobsnoot
3 months ago
I am actually enjoying this bud!
:D
GOLD / 500oz swing / To the Top, or Bottom.
Reply
alanprotrader
3 months ago
Yellen's news is going to broke the market lol
+1 Reply
In the end, it was a trend-line re-test and then 1317 =) I have a shadow target of 1300 but, as you said, buying volume was very nice!
+1 Reply
sandhusukhjit
3 months ago
LOL!! There is nothing wrong in accepting that you are on the wrong side of trade once in a while :)
+1 Reply
SherPunjabi PRO sandhusukhjit
3 months ago
balle kaka tere
Reply
adyshul
3 months ago
well, that's all for today .. at least for me .. let's see what China's banks will bring next week ... the world economy is very fragile in this times .. there will be lots of fluctuations in the markets and gold will go up for sure .. just have a bit of patience
+1 Reply
I bounced too hard this morning. It reversed the trend. So I don't worry at all. $1319 held in the morning and will hold again if we get there.
+1 Reply
TPparadigma
3 months ago
It wouldnt be so bad actually if we hit 1310, 9.. nice place for buy in.. Buy low sell high! I am running Sell now.. and letting it sink to the best bottom hopefully.
+1 Reply
i agree good work
+1 Reply
alanprotrader
3 months ago
thanks arpi, what should be the bounce price?
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO alanprotrader
3 months ago
riangle upper trendline
Reply
Viking83 PRO
3 months ago
It just kissed the lower triangle trendline. Added JNUG. Sell it all if it breaks :)
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO Viking83
3 months ago
The vikings always had metal balls. Are you the descendant of Ragnar Lothbrok?
Reply
Viking83 PRO chartwatchers
3 months ago
Look at the long-term down trendline kiss of GDXJ from the other day on daily chart. Would you resist?
Reply
Loii
3 months ago
probably gonna go lower
MUTLICHANNEL BEARISH CHANNEL GOLD

+1 Reply
s.mahdi Loii
3 months ago
very useful analysis...seems to be the more logical to retest the strong 1324.18 resistance level and move down to 1300.which is a strong support >>> then up to 1350
Reply
GoldB777
3 months ago
I just doesn't seem like it can break out. I may just wait another week for the jobs report.
Reply
Added a bit more so can sell some at upper boundary.
Reply
Yellen
3 months ago
Sorry guys Fischer is still short in gold and long in the dollar.
We have to give him the chance to close his positions.
I did what I can for your gold longs.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-edges-down-as-all-eyes-on-jackson-hole-speech-2016-08-26
Reply
Funny NAT GAS acts like insurance. Doesn't care much of all the craziness going on on markets. Love it. Local commodity.
Reply
DiaTronik PRO
3 months ago
funny last time 3 months ago i followed u on gold that it will crash , and i almost lost half my account, now i went againts u. and i think i made the right one
+1 Reply
TPparadigma DiaTronik
3 months ago
This comment was absolutelly unnecessary.
Reply
s.mahdi DiaTronik
3 months ago
100% right..i survived due to stop loss>>>>otherwise market is moving 100% opposite at least on short term trades>>>>
Reply
PF7
3 months ago
we are stuck, USdollar is too strong and it might get even stronger
Reply
traderzaius PF7
3 months ago
yet gold didnt break down...
Reply
alanprotrader
3 months ago
"At the end we will not get a green marubozu just an inverted hammer." Looks like we have a inverted hammer on daily. Lol
Reply
TPparadigma
3 months ago
I think maybe 1312 before the real upside movement.
Reply
waterman
3 months ago
You are a terrible bull. Without breaking your horn you will not surrender ?
Reply
traderzaius waterman
3 months ago
its called cycles analysis...we are bullish because the cycle shows we are in a bull market after a long bear market
Reply
waterman traderzaius
3 months ago
Thanks.
Reply
traderzaius
3 months ago
Dollar should top next week and fall into a bloodbath ICL.
Reply
Since I am trading Silver I am watching it more closely. I think it printed very late DCL at 61st day yesterday (doji) and today confirmed it with big move up on higher volume. It also setup a trap for bears by pulling back and printing inverted hammer. I think on Monday the open will be upward with a gap generating fast short squeeze rally. Recently Silver was predicting Gold's action 1-2 days ahead, so same for Gold.
Reply
Deuce888 PRO
3 months ago
Give Chartwatchers a break. The guy is giving free advice. Take it or leave it but don't complain like a little girl. He called NGAS earlier this week and USOIL bounce off 200MA.

Good job mate. I read your opinions daily.
+6 Reply
rzvfx
3 months ago
I am LONG on GOLD too; you can see here another bullish analyst : http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/threads/gold-daily-video-30-august-2016.46850/
Reply
investment6300 rzvfx
3 months ago
Great share! thanks
+1 Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out