The Commitment of Traders report (COT) is published at the close of every Friday's trade and it always shows the Tuesday COT data. The formula for Blees rating uses the Commercial Traders net contract holdings at the date of the current COT report. We inserted the Blees rating into the daily chart .
The last Blees rating numbers (24) are showing that commercials are still heavily shorting the gold market. This is the first week when commercial short position has been decreased. It is 42.000 less than last Tuesday. The Blees were 24 Tuesday , it has been turning up (Last Tuesday it was 3) . (I noticed when the blees is turning down from 100 or turning up from zero the real decline/ rally is getting started. )
The blees rating at 24 is still showing to the lower prices. When blees will be between 50-70 that will show that longer term direction change is coming.
Thank you chartwatchers! When I read 5 blees number at 4th. march from your chart then I know the expanded flat is worked because that is the real starting of the declines. As an expanded flat the target is 1.618 about 1183 as I mentioned before. When this target is reached a bounce will retest the neckline and a second short is on the way.
avento
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here is another handful tool (and maybe the best) for C.O.T. reports analysis: timingcharts.com/
I watch for trend change on the Large Spec/Producers to confirm entry/exit points Note when the stairstep patterns reverse.....
shero
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thanks but I'm more confused now ... does that means we are expecting a rally upwards or a change in trend downwards or both ?
chartwatchers
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Just a bounce next week or the week after that.
And a final decline to 1140-50
toothless
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Thank you for the update, even during the weekend with the markets closed. :)
Does the data in the report change your trade strategy for going long for a few days with the idea of gold bouncing up to ~1230? I followed your lead with closing half of DUST, as I felt we hit the DCL today after Yellen's comments. Mahalos from Hawaii
Thanks for the inspiration...