After last weekend’s aggressive selloff, gold is showing signs of a mild technical rebound around the 4,560 USD area. However, based on current market behavior, I still do not see this as a true reversal — it looks much more like a classic “dead cat bounce.”
What stands out to me is that even though price has bounced from its lowest level in more than six weeks, gold still remains below both EMA34 and EMA89 on the H1 timeframe. More importantly, EMA34 is sloping downward quite aggressively, which signals that the short-term bearish trend remains fully intact.
At the moment, the nearest resistance zone sits around 4,580 – 4,600 USD. If gold fails to reclaim this area, there is a strong possibility the market could rotate back down to retest the 4,500 USD zone, or even extend losses toward 4,450 USD if selling pressure accelerates again.
From a macro perspective, markets are still being pressured by expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy restrictive for longer than previously expected. Oil prices remaining above 100 USD per barrel are reviving inflation concerns, while US Treasury yields stay near 4.6% and the US dollar continues trading near multi-week highs.
What’s interesting this time is that Middle East tensions are no longer supporting gold as strongly as before. Instead of driving safe-haven inflows, higher oil prices are making investors worry that the Fed could remain even more hawkish — creating direct downside pressure on gold.
What stands out to me is that even though price has bounced from its lowest level in more than six weeks, gold still remains below both EMA34 and EMA89 on the H1 timeframe. More importantly, EMA34 is sloping downward quite aggressively, which signals that the short-term bearish trend remains fully intact.
At the moment, the nearest resistance zone sits around 4,580 – 4,600 USD. If gold fails to reclaim this area, there is a strong possibility the market could rotate back down to retest the 4,500 USD zone, or even extend losses toward 4,450 USD if selling pressure accelerates again.
From a macro perspective, markets are still being pressured by expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy restrictive for longer than previously expected. Oil prices remaining above 100 USD per barrel are reviving inflation concerns, while US Treasury yields stay near 4.6% and the US dollar continues trading near multi-week highs.
What’s interesting this time is that Middle East tensions are no longer supporting gold as strongly as before. Instead of driving safe-haven inflows, higher oil prices are making investors worry that the Fed could remain even more hawkish — creating direct downside pressure on gold.
Trade closed: target reached
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Join our group and unlock real-time Forex, gold, and crypto signals — sharp insights, fast alerts, and opportunities you don’t want to miss.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.