📅 Thursday: The payroll print that changed the conversation.
57K jobs. That's what the US economy added in June. The market expected 110K. April and May were quietly revised down by another 74K.
One data point doesn't make a trend. But this one mattered.
September rate hike odds dropped from 63% → 53% in minutes. The Dollar fell to a two-week low. Gold spiked.
Yet here's the thing — the unemployment rate still fell to 4.2%. Wages held at 3.5% YoY. The labour market isn't collapsing. It's cooling. There's a difference.
🇺🇸 July 3–4: The liquidity void
Today the US bond market closes early. Tomorrow — July 4 — everything is shut. Independence Day.
What happens in thin holiday markets:
Wider spreads — fewer participants, higher entry cost
Erratic spikes — small orders push price further than they should
Fakeouts — breakouts without conviction
Any move today or Friday should be faded or ignored. Real price discovery resumes Monday.
🎯 My view:
NFP softened the hawkish grip. Gold got a bid. But the macro hasn't flipped — the Fed is still talking restrictive, inflation is still above target, and a single payroll miss doesn't end the tightening cycle.
Thin holiday markets are not where I build conviction. I wait for Monday. I wait for volume. I wait for confirmation.
⚠️ Macro reflection. Not a trade call. US markets closed Friday — enjoy the break.
57K jobs. That's what the US economy added in June. The market expected 110K. April and May were quietly revised down by another 74K.
One data point doesn't make a trend. But this one mattered.
September rate hike odds dropped from 63% → 53% in minutes. The Dollar fell to a two-week low. Gold spiked.
Yet here's the thing — the unemployment rate still fell to 4.2%. Wages held at 3.5% YoY. The labour market isn't collapsing. It's cooling. There's a difference.
🇺🇸 July 3–4: The liquidity void
Today the US bond market closes early. Tomorrow — July 4 — everything is shut. Independence Day.
What happens in thin holiday markets:
Wider spreads — fewer participants, higher entry cost
Erratic spikes — small orders push price further than they should
Fakeouts — breakouts without conviction
Any move today or Friday should be faded or ignored. Real price discovery resumes Monday.
🎯 My view:
NFP softened the hawkish grip. Gold got a bid. But the macro hasn't flipped — the Fed is still talking restrictive, inflation is still above target, and a single payroll miss doesn't end the tightening cycle.
Thin holiday markets are not where I build conviction. I wait for Monday. I wait for volume. I wait for confirmation.
⚠️ Macro reflection. Not a trade call. US markets closed Friday — enjoy the break.
📊 Follow for daily Market Summary, Technical & Fundamental Analysis
👉 t.me/elibrianalytics
👉 t.me/elibrianalytics
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📊 Follow for daily Market Summary, Technical & Fundamental Analysis
👉 t.me/elibrianalytics
👉 t.me/elibrianalytics
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.