Cathie Wood predicted Bitcoin will be 500 k in 5 years, but ...
In the past 24 hours, all crypto enthusiasts talk about " Cathie Wood predicted Bitcoin will be 500 k in 5 years".
But she mentioned two Ifs:
1- Her price prediction depends on whether companies continue to diversify their balance sheets into bitcoin, the biggest cryptocurrency by market value, and whether institutional investors begin to allocate 5% of their funds to it.
2-She said, "because countries are now deeming it legal tender." El Salvador recently made bitcoin legal currency, while Panama and Ukraine are said to be doing the same.
Now, let's dig deeper into this:
In 2020, GDP for El Salvador was 24.61 billion US dollars. Ranked 103 in the world. Very, Very, Very small (less than 3% of Bitcoin market cap)
In 2020, the GDP for Ukraine was 153.8 billion US dollars. Ranked 57 in the world. (less than 16% of Bitcoin market cap)
In 2020, GDP for Panama was 53 billion US dollars. Ranked 70 in the world. Very, Very, Very small (less than 6% of Bitcoin market cap)
Cryptocurrency adaptation:
At the end of Q2 2021, global adoption has grown by over 2300% since Q3 2019 and over 881% in the last year.
But the biggest problem is " Bitcoin losing its dominance in the cryptocurrency world and smaller market cap coins are more attractive for new crypto enthusiasts!
In other words, People have already started looking for the next bitcoin..!
Solana
Cardano
Chainlink
could be good examples for this effort..!
Bitcoin Market dominance Chart:
This chart clearly shows bitcoin losing its dominance..!
I believe anyone who believes Bitcoin could reach 500 K in 5 years should be able to answer these questions:
1- How many government-backed cryptocurrencies we will have in the next 5 years?
2- How many Business giants (Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook,... ) backed cryptocurrency we will have in the next 5 years?
3- What would be the rate of adaptation in the next 5 years?
4- what would be the Bitcoin market dominance in the next 5 years?
The answer to the first 3 questions is not clear, but I can talk about the last question.
Bitcoins market dominance trend shows, bitcoin losing its market cap dominance constantly and in the next five years, it is highly likely that this number shrinks more..!
I believe only impossible is impossible, but mathematically Bitcoin will not be able to reach 10,000,000,000,000 market cap (10 Trillion US dollars) in the next 5 years!
If you want to know how big this number is:
There is approximately US$ 40 trillion in circulation: this includes all the physical money and the money deposited in savings and checking accounts.
Total money in the stock market, which is a mere $95 trillion.
Gold's Market Cap
Estimated Market Cap: $11.401 T
The Market Capitalization of Gold is currently around $11.401 T.
This value was obtained by multiplying the current gold price ($1,795 per once) with the world's above-ground gold reserves.
The amount of above-ground reserves for Gold are estimated to be around 197,500 metric tonnes according to the World Gold Council (End-2019). Note that the estimated above-ground Gold reserves can vary by up to 20% from one source to another.
As a consequence, it is safe to say that the current Market Cap of Gold is between $9.121 T and $13.682 T.
10 Trillion dollars is almost equal to the total Gold in the world!
Apple market cap: 2.4 Trillion dollars
Microsoft: 2.2 trillion dollars
As of March 31, 2021, there was nearly US $2.1 trillion in circulation, including Federal Reserve notes, coins, and currency no longer issued. (rankred.com)
The final question for Cathie Wood:
Cathie Wood loves Palantir and claim they have the best AI technology in the world (which could be true).
Palantir has bought 50 million dollars of physical gold recently, while they are discussing the future of bitcoin..!
Why Palantir did not buy Bitcoin instead of Gold???
Numbers do not lie..!
Reference article:
https://www.rankred.com/how-much-money-is-there-in-the-world/
But she mentioned two Ifs:
1- Her price prediction depends on whether companies continue to diversify their balance sheets into bitcoin, the biggest cryptocurrency by market value, and whether institutional investors begin to allocate 5% of their funds to it.
2-She said, "because countries are now deeming it legal tender." El Salvador recently made bitcoin legal currency, while Panama and Ukraine are said to be doing the same.
Now, let's dig deeper into this:
In 2020, GDP for El Salvador was 24.61 billion US dollars. Ranked 103 in the world. Very, Very, Very small (less than 3% of Bitcoin market cap)
In 2020, the GDP for Ukraine was 153.8 billion US dollars. Ranked 57 in the world. (less than 16% of Bitcoin market cap)
In 2020, GDP for Panama was 53 billion US dollars. Ranked 70 in the world. Very, Very, Very small (less than 6% of Bitcoin market cap)
Cryptocurrency adaptation:
At the end of Q2 2021, global adoption has grown by over 2300% since Q3 2019 and over 881% in the last year.
But the biggest problem is " Bitcoin losing its dominance in the cryptocurrency world and smaller market cap coins are more attractive for new crypto enthusiasts!
In other words, People have already started looking for the next bitcoin..!
Solana
Cardano
Chainlink
could be good examples for this effort..!
Bitcoin Market dominance Chart:
This chart clearly shows bitcoin losing its dominance..!
I believe anyone who believes Bitcoin could reach 500 K in 5 years should be able to answer these questions:
1- How many government-backed cryptocurrencies we will have in the next 5 years?
2- How many Business giants (Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook,... ) backed cryptocurrency we will have in the next 5 years?
3- What would be the rate of adaptation in the next 5 years?
4- what would be the Bitcoin market dominance in the next 5 years?
The answer to the first 3 questions is not clear, but I can talk about the last question.
Bitcoins market dominance trend shows, bitcoin losing its market cap dominance constantly and in the next five years, it is highly likely that this number shrinks more..!
I believe only impossible is impossible, but mathematically Bitcoin will not be able to reach 10,000,000,000,000 market cap (10 Trillion US dollars) in the next 5 years!
If you want to know how big this number is:
There is approximately US$ 40 trillion in circulation: this includes all the physical money and the money deposited in savings and checking accounts.
Total money in the stock market, which is a mere $95 trillion.
Gold's Market Cap
Estimated Market Cap: $11.401 T
The Market Capitalization of Gold is currently around $11.401 T.
This value was obtained by multiplying the current gold price ($1,795 per once) with the world's above-ground gold reserves.
The amount of above-ground reserves for Gold are estimated to be around 197,500 metric tonnes according to the World Gold Council (End-2019). Note that the estimated above-ground Gold reserves can vary by up to 20% from one source to another.
As a consequence, it is safe to say that the current Market Cap of Gold is between $9.121 T and $13.682 T.
10 Trillion dollars is almost equal to the total Gold in the world!
Apple market cap: 2.4 Trillion dollars
Microsoft: 2.2 trillion dollars
As of March 31, 2021, there was nearly US $2.1 trillion in circulation, including Federal Reserve notes, coins, and currency no longer issued. (rankred.com)
The final question for Cathie Wood:
Cathie Wood loves Palantir and claim they have the best AI technology in the world (which could be true).
Palantir has bought 50 million dollars of physical gold recently, while they are discussing the future of bitcoin..!
Why Palantir did not buy Bitcoin instead of Gold???
Numbers do not lie..!
Reference article:
https://www.rankred.com/how-much-money-is-there-in-the-world/
Comment:
It's remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. Charlie Munger