One of many possible uncertain outcomes that we may face is the path of a "longer bottom". However, after the bottom has greater confirmation ("measure in weeks"), then we may likely see the increase around 2023-01 to 2025-01. Significant variables that arise over the next 29 months can rapidly shift the markets; both up and down unexpectedly (the known unknown market-shaping variables).
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BTC 2022-05 to 2022-09 4h forecast
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It's very possible that we will see below 17k between 2022-11-11 & 2023-04-04 ; however, I left it out of this view. It could be very short lived at those levels.
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Possible decrease until September 1st. Then pre-payday increase to around September 6, 2022, followed by a decrease from September 6, 2022 to October 1, 2022.
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With Global Market Uncertainty, BTC is still experiencing a "longer flatter bottom". Inverted Yield Curve Monitor:
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VIX ("The Fear Index") is also on the rise reflecting "uncertainty" in the global markets.
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BTC: very clear down trend (past 15 days)
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still in play. click the play button.
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It is very possible that the longer flatter bottom can be extended until 2023-03-22. The unlikely and very latest that the bottom may occur is estimated [by day0 prediction analysis] to be 2023-09-19. However, it's never a good idea to "wait until the last minute" either. Between 2022-11-11 and 2023-09-09, it is also possible that here may be a "flash crash" that dips neat 9.8k; however it would be a very short duration to confirm the ultra lowest point possible for this halving cycle; meaning war or climate or viruses may cause a temporarily generated flash bottom like there was in 2020-03 (depending on what expected challenges and variables occur over the next 12 months).
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As WW3 escalates (as expected by most analysts), 2023 may experience a "longer flatter bottom" as well. If WW3 did not escalate as much, then this forecast would be more precise for 2022. However, this forecast clearly states and increase in 2023, but does not say which quarter of 2023. This was intentional with the "known uncertainty" for the Q1 2023 start of the next official recession.
So if the official announcement of the recession is announced on 2023-01-06 then, BTC will fall from 2023-01 to 2023-03.
The very latest that day0 predictive analysis is forecasting the TOTAL & BTC very bottom is near or during 2023-09. However, this is without WW3 escalating too far into the interconnected blockchain markets; in terms of market price.
This forecast ends on 2022-12-31 for all of the reasons mentioned above. For the year 2023 and later, please view the day0 monthly extended long-term forecast here:
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Reminder: Diesel fuel expect to run out on 2022-11-19 in US & Europe. Perhaps, this shortage maybe felt [empty] at the diesel pumps around 2022-12-12. Check news & energy departments for updates.
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2022-12-27 small increase that decreases before 2023-01-16.
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2023 Q1 & Q2 bear. Q3 (flat) & Q4 slightly bull. mostly as recession risks increase along with WW3/WW4 activities.
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Still on a relatively flat, then downward trend:
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Roughly $25,555 could be next peak, before next dip.
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$24,666.66 then decline for 2023-02
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BTC may find bottom by 2023-06-06, after there is more historical data available.
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BTC may find bottom by 2023-06-06 (daily) (2022-01 to 2024-01):
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BTC repeating trend of 2022-07 & 2022-08 (possible double bottom or "longer flatter bottom", before the steady rise to the estimated peak of 2025-01):
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The hunt for BTC bottom:
This is a daily view of an alternative path that reflects a green path near $32666 to $36666, followed by a downtrend to near the $19666 zone. This is in addition to the blue & pink lines reflecting a bottom near the $14666 to $17666 zones (around 2023-06-06 plus or minus 1-month). an hour ago
BTC repeating trend of 2022-07 & 2022-08 (possible double bottom or "longer flatter bottom", before the steady rise to the estimated peak of 2025-01):
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BTC may stop declining before 2023-12. BTC weekly 2022-03 to 2023-08 BTC weekly chart from 2022-03 to 2023-08 reflects a $36666.66 to $15666.66 zone for 2023-04 (see green dashed-line). However, the strongest resistance zones, based off of today's historical data (on 2023-02-28), reflect a $32666.66 to $15666.66 zone for 2023-08-28 (see pink dashed-line).
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News: "Economist Harry Dent Expects Biggest Crash in Our Lifetime" " Bitcoin may go down more like 95%, 96%. Dent expects the crypto market may crash alongside stocks, with BTC falling up to 95%-96% from its November 2021 high. "
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There is a very high probability that BTC will decrease significantly from 2023-8-15 to 2024-01-15. Especially in 2023-12. recession prediction = 2024-01
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recession prediction = 2024-01
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This idea should expire on the original chart at the very top around 2024-02-02 to 2024-04-04 (roughly).
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(click chart to play) BINANCE:BTCUSDT 1W 2022-12 to 2024-02:
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$150000 to $250000 is still very possible for 2025
btc is a good point of investment in my opinion. i rather choose blockchain that feds, and wallstreet. but my main concern is WW3. everything will be bottom if this happen after 5 to 10years or worst 3 years time. CHINA is so advance now.... what will the USA do? Manipulate?.... so my hopes are probably it wall fall below 10k and a massive rebound after that.
day0
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@p_acas, The macro reset; freshwater scarcity; food scarcity; migration to more stable zones; inflation; deflation; great depression; WW3/WW4; pandemics; & more events that are interconnected are going to make the navigation very difficult. So you raise a very valid concern about the effects of WW on the economy. Sometimes war can boost the economy in some zones, but there 's always war debt too as another factor.
I see further diversification amongst totally different asset classes as one possibility. However, it is still possible to experience a decline in value compared to today's prices in almost everything.
For a very rare and eccentric example: a massive natural disaster alone that reduces all species down by 76.66% (disclaimer: this is just a rare example not an expected outcome) can cause the demand for nearly everything to decline suddenly. A sudden drop in demand may often cause a sudden drop in market price or value.
This rare example is similar to a deflationary great depression; which is deflation from a sudden drop in over-consumption to under-consumption (living like the 1400's) for a short duration.
One asset class can be 25+ shelf life food storage and other needs like: soap; toothpaste; clothes; blankets; extra washer & dryer. After all of that more physical items can be a possibly too (anything from gold to diamonds). Then there is blockchain and the traditional sytem as two more different classes of assets. A car & land can count for some too.
However, all of ones eggs in one basket with a weak basket handle can spill eggs all over the place. So you raise a great point about the war effects coming.
For the timeline, I think 2025-01 to 2026-01 may be very high risk for shifts.
orbborrison
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I like it.
day0
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@orbborrison, And note updated Oct 11th comment for year 2023 possibility too (war delays & further recession 2023)
@Antikythera_Mechanism, For the less conservative flash (short in duration) bottom, it is very possible it can reach that low when things begin really heating up between NOV to MAR 2023.
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@Antikythera_Mechanism, Below 9k perhaps later in the year 2023 (from the WW3 / WW4 escalations alone).