Over the last 10-weeks we've seen a period of consolidation in which BTC moving sideways bouncing between the 9k-10k levels. And over the last 6-weeks, we've seen price of BTC coiling - signalling a BIG moving coming by the end of this week. The last time we had a coiling of BTCUSD to this extent was back in the summer and Autumn of 2018 before the BIG sell off all the way down to low-3k levels at the end of 2018.
Right now we have two scenarios as we see a big move in BTC coming in the next day or two. (Time of writing July 15, 2020).
1) Bull case: BTC and alts confirm bull market, pushing past the 2.5-year trend line (see previous post), continuing summer euphoria and finally breaking through 10k towards 11.8k level then 14K and before reaching previous all-time highs of 20k around Q4 2020.
2) Bear case (short-term): this is a more likely or one I'm hoping for at least. The market reject the 2.5-year trend line and drop down towards 87XX then 77xx. Some bears out there analyzing the market see BTC going to 71xx, 68xx or even as low as 61xx. I wouldn't mind seeing the market dip that low - more discount for everyone - but I'm personally targeting 77xx as a more realistic bottom before gradually going back up towards and through the trend line.
SMS Indicator on the weekly also crossed red two weeks ago - possibly signalling an imminent short-term market drop.
This isn't financial advise. This is simply my take on the markets. Please do your own research before any trade, especially at volatile times like these.