BITMEX:XBT   Bitcoin / US Dollar Index
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2
Trend Analysis & Standard Deviation:
Rounded to Nearest Dollar, or Whole

Dates: 01 March 2017 - 23 May 2018
This Analysis comprises three upward trend channels:
Trend A: Upper Channel - Resistance Level
Trend B: Middle Channel - Resistance Level
Trend C: Lower Channel - Support Level

Dates: 01 March 2018 - 23 May 2018
Days = 84 Days
Average Daily Price = $ 8 592
Std Deviation = $ 1 113
Liquidation Limits 1 : 68% Probability $ 7 478 - $ 9 795
Liquidation Limits 2 : 95,5% Probability $ 6 366 - $ 10 818
Liquidation Limits 3 : 97,7% Probability $ 5 253 - $ 11 931

Magnified:
Cycle 1: 05 April 2018 - 05 May 2018
Trend: Upward
Days: 31
Average Daily Price = $ 8 415
Std Deviation = $ 1029
Liquidation Limits 1 : 68% Probability $ 7 368 - $ 9 444
Liquidation Limits 2 : 95,5% Probability $ 6 357 - $ 10 473
Liquidation Limits 3 : 97,7% Probability $ 5 328 - $ 11 502

Cycle 2: 06 May 2018 - 23 May 2018
Trend: Down
Days: 28
Average Daily Price = $ 8 583
Std Deviation = $ 524
Liquidation Limits 1 : 68% Probability $ 8 059 - $ 9 107
Liquidation Limits 2 : 95,5% Probability $ 7 535 - $ 9 631
Liquidation Limits 3 : 97,7% Probability $ 7 011 - $ 10 155

Note: The Standard Deviation on the Downward cycle - $524 is smaller than the Standard Deviation of the Upward Cycle -$1 029.
This is indicative of an upward trend.
Comment: PRICE MOVEMENT:
05 April 2018 - 05 May 2018
Days 31
OP: $ 6778
CP: $ 9 811
Move: 45% Up

05 May 2018 - 23 May 2018
Days: 29
OP: $ 9 811
CP: $ 7 503
Move: 24% Down

Predication:
Upward:
Buy +- $ 7300 - $7400
Sell +- $ 11 300
Days: 31 Days - 24 June 2018
Note Resistance - $ 9975 - $10 000
Comment: Expected Margins:
Sell Range 1: $ 9 975 - 26%
Sell Range 1: $ 11 300 - 53%
Comment: Prediction Downward:
Lowest Possible Price within a 3-5 day range, holding market constant - $7000, as per the recent 28 day Std Deviation

Comments

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