The technical chart called for a rally to 3000 euros, by the end of Dec 2017, or sooner. In this case, I could assume that we have two main scenarios going forward:
- #1: The time duration of the rally is valid, and we get continued upside. This doesn't imply a correction won't happen. The market can take many detours before finally topping by year end. Sentiment and shorter term signals would be our guide, to navigate trends while risk/reward is positive in the short term and sentiment still negative or neutral. Sentiment is extremely now, which is a contrarian signal and a cause for concern for any astute investor. In this positive scenario, we get a healthy correction during this time and going into August events, and maybe lasting for a while longer until sentiment resets, everyone panics and we bottom in the weeky timeframe again. Then we launch into a rally for the duration of the year again.
- #2: This was IT, the crypto bubble peaked, we get a nasty 2 year+ correction or consolidation akin to 2013 to 2015. If this is the case, which I fear might be, we might never hit the 3000 euro mark or we hit now before the time expires for the long term rally. This could easily form a top any time soon, and the fundamental events to come would exacerbate the selloff causing the newcomers to lose all their money, longs to get margin called, maybe some exchanges to go bust, and then get a continuous chain of negative events, and increasingly negative sentiment...some possible events include problems after the scaling solutions are implemented in BTC , ETH facing technical design problems that cause the rally in it to peak and massively decline back to monthly support at 11 eur after PoS gets delayed again, China to regulate ICOs, maybe harsher regulations take place broadly accross crypto markets globally, etc.
People should be wiser investors, and not gamblers who chase momentum. This never ends well, or at least is not a wise investment strategy. The insanity in sentiment has made people very critical of my work, I get ridiculed, insulted, mocked often. When all is said and done, I might be proven right, to the permabulls dismay.
Disclaimer: I think BTC and cryptocurrencies are of tremendous utility in the world, and a new asset class in their own right. I would like to maintain 25% exposure to this market at all times, but it's wise to diversify into 3 other asset classes to store and grow your wealth. (local and foreign stocks, bonds/gold/silver, cash, real world businesses/passive income sources). Specially after a huge win in one market, pour the gains into equalizing your exposure in other fields.
I think BTC topped here.
I'll wait until all scaling news are out. In cash and trading other markets. I trade trends, not chop.
Sentiment information was good, I went long at 2050 after bottoming against the OkCoin key level.
I had many people complaining of NOT being in the short then...before they were all complaining of not being long. -this was at the previous top- Sentiment is the best timing tool paired with technical information. If you have a fundamental understanding of the instrument, you will do well.
My take is that this is a sideways consolidation range until August 1st, then we probably rally again for the rest of the year.
The shitstorm begins. Personally I am cautiously opening shorts.