Peak sentiment helped us find the top a few times. The last one was a nice bear market in BTC for a few days. I covered my shorts, and bought part of my BTC position (10% of net worth). I aim to have a maximum of 25%, after we get all the scaling news out of the way, and once we have a new weekly uptrend signal. For now, we are under pressure, and we might see a volatile sideways range ensue. The daily chart shows a potential uptrend starting, which points to a sharp 10 day advance, today being day #1, which could top and reverse back down to support, be it at the starting point of the move like the previous 9 day rally, or maybe to the 2170 mark.
I noticed people were starting to become negative a day ago, when we were hitting support, and traders who were complaining about being in cash, and even worse shorting, started to complain about NOT being in a short anymore, and missing this action. This is typical behavior at turning points. The thing is that sentiment is rapidly switching, turning 180 degrees over the course of 2 weeks...Interesting to say the least. Combine the crowd behavior, with the fundamental information available to us from multiple sources and we can paint a vivid picture of what's going on, and what we can expect from this or any market.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
ps: this is the signal I sent to my clients to long: imgur.com/a/uEDiM "Let's try buying a 10% long in BTC now. We will add back to longs gradually."
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BTC acts strong, being accumulated as fear mongering makes recent 100% bull camp give up.
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BTCUSD is likely to chop sideways for weeks to come, but, if we rally further, it can hit $3996.33
Thank you Ivan. Personally I think we are going to see at least one other big drop sooner or later over the next couple of weeks, maybe to between 1500 and 1600 Euros to test the top of the long trendline we broke at the start of May. If the weekly candle ends like this or worse then I really feel another wave of selling will happen.
But it is very good to have my convictions tested by your technicals. I am preparing for more of a sideways evolution also, and in all cases trying to remain modest with targets etc.
BRRD
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... And it could be that the drop to even lower prices comes post a few days' climb, like as you project. Also keeping a close eye on the mouthpiece of entities with large interest in the game - coindesk.com/ to see if any strategy becomes apparent in their news broadcasting!
Overthelimits
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Ivan, thank you for your work. You have most precise predictions for BTC as far!
Could you recommend useful books to read on this topic?
IvanLabrie
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@egorov.alex33, Thanks a lot. You can read 'reminiscences of a stocks operator' by Edwin Lefebvre.
KLYP_Investment
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you are real pro.
peterpeter1
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Thank you for your great work,
Im having a hard time to find an entry point for now.
Could the 21 day ma @ 2234 be an entry point?
IvanLabrie
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@PeterPeter, there are many ways of going long. Depends on the method you use. The trend can be up in the daily timeframe very soon, but I think it is sideways for a few weeks.
peterpeter1
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@IvanLabrie, Thank you for your fast reply, acctually i dont know what to do, if i should just wait till the sideway action is gone and we have a clear uptrend, lets see what will happen.
Have a great Weekend.
IvanLabrie
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@PeterPeter, if you are a long term trader after a pullback ends, you can start accumulating long positions, like now...gradually until August 1st, or during 1 month. Try to buy on dips to support, the lower the better. If we don't fall below this zone, we might just grind sideways for a while. A max long term holding of 20% of net worth is a good idea in BTC, imho.
But it is very good to have my convictions tested by your technicals. I am preparing for more of a sideways evolution also, and in all cases trying to remain modest with targets etc.