Re-analysing Bitcoin 2 - Short-term setup with high R/R - XBTEUR

We have a possibility here for long trade on bitcoin . In the intermediate term I still think the price wants to reset, which would involve some sort of triangle or a move back down to the larger moving averages . To understand why it's worth trying a long trade against these odds, we have to consider the possible outcomes, which i'll do in a bit. But first:

Entry:
We will enter on the break of the last daily high. a buy-stop order is the best option here.

Initial stop:
This will be under the low of the last day.

Exit:
I'll be moving a stop up under the swing lows, probably on the 4 hour or 1 hour timeframe.

What analysis i'm doing:
So, let's consider the possible outcomes.
A) We move immediately down, with no break up, nothing lost, we cancel the buy-stop.
B) We move up, enter the trade, but then move down again. In this case (the worst) we lose 1:1 risk to reward.
C) (The good stuff) The trade moves in our favour. Let's analyse this a bit more:

• If the price does move up, even if we only made it halfway to the last major high before the dump (the blue line) we would make a nice risk to reward of nearly 15:1
  
• We have two inside bars (the high and low of a candle being completely inside another). Let's imagine we break the first one...this break of the consolidation could easily propel us to, and potentially through, the next high (shown at point A). Once point A is broken we begin to take out peoples stops, adding to the pressure. we would also get a renewed enthusiasm for bulls to see this pop up. This could take us to and past point B (shown on the chart), where we would see a repeat of the process of taking out stops and renewing the enthusiasm of the bulls. After this there is basically just open space for the price to move through.
  
• When considering the potential direction of a breakout of consolidation (the inside bars) they are usually a continuation in the same direction. although the price movement is a bit messy we can sort of see that the last recognisable move before the consolidation was up (the bar before point A)
  

A couple more important things:

• You can only really take this kind of trade if you do this a lot. i.e. every setup of this possibility. this is because overall I would say the general sentiment is weighted against us, it's a slim possibility. But if only 1 in 10 work out we're still good and in profit.
  
• I'm only considering this because of the consolidation (inside bars), which can result in powerful moves in either direction of a breakout.
  

What are your thoughts on this?

Mark

Order cancelled:

We've begun to break down so this idea is invalid now.