Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
Description
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Here we see a daily chart of XBTUSD, the Bitmex future price of Bitocin. I have been trading here for a while now (because of a lack of a better broker) and have been seeing some changes here. Spoofy (or a friend of Spoofy) has also been doing the same thing here. Buy and sell orders in the book of 1 million and up to 10 million USD. WHat i have seen lately, the bigger orders of around 500K have increased allot here. Many times i see price at Bitmex react faster that at the exchanges, which means ofcourse that players are setting up their positions at Bitmex and seconds later are dumping or buying at the exchanges to move the price in their direction and make big profits and the future. If the move has some follow through from other (normal) buyers and or sellers, they will probably also make big profits on the exchange it self. The fact that volume has increased allot at Bitmex, probably confirms the fact that more big players (probably hedge funds) have entered the market and have started to play with the smaller traders and slowly are draining their funds.
I have been trading markets for almost 20 years now, my first few years TA was an easy and wonderful tool to use. Untill the hedge funds increased in numbers and started to use our TA tactics against us. Making it very VERY difficult to trade the markets. Bitcoin was just wonderful to trade the second half year of 2017, but i have been noticing the last month or 2, that things have started to change a bit. Certain patterns just not reaching their targets, buying support, creating selling pressure, forced short (or buy) covering.
These actions only confirms my general thought about Bitcoin, it will never have a real future. Bitcoin was not created to be used as a tool to earn massive amounts of $, or to be used as a trading tool for big players to drain the money of the unexperienced traders. It's money flowing from the normal people into the pockets of the rich, making the rich even more rich! My guess for 2018 we will see a few more crashes and relief rallies, probably between 4K and 12K. At the lows pushing out the little guy with panic selling, and bringing it back to the highs to give hope again and pulling people back in the market with fresh money to steal again.
Stands to reason the only defense is to buy at a low you can live with, not try to beat the big whales at their own game, and simply HODL as BTC becomes more and more adopted. Getting in early — ahead of 99% of the globe — is the only thing in our favor or will be in our favor. Too expensive to mine. Too expensive to buy retail in mass quanities and too speculative to cash out of homes for it. Everyone now needs a plan to accumulate and hold. You either have faith it will have 10x + its value in the future, or you don't. Place your bets.
botje11
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@Kavalier77, That's what i try many as well, decide if your a believer or not, pick the right one and stick to it. But that actually proves allot, most are speculating. It's not the same as investing
OmidPustcci
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i totaly agree with your view on Bitcoin and Bitmex, but i believe once Bitcoin ETF are out things will start to look much better
botje11
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@OmidPustcci, Lets hope things get better, but it won't be easy
UnknownUnicorn1741651
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This is THE most useful post I've seen in last 3 months. I have some longtime relationship with TA myself and completely agree. Thanks for sharing your observations!
botje11
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@beringx, Thank you :), i also find it very clarifying for what is going on sometimes
SexorioArtist
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i googled bitmex volume seconds ago and found your post! i'm looking all day and night the orderbooks and price movements and i registrated that btc prices on bitmex prices moved first. and other exchanges following. can you recommend a strategy cause I'm a little guy who want to not loose my hard earned money. many thanks :)
botje11
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@SexorioArtist, My Public Telegram channel is free to join
peakindicator
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Great post. There's only one point I will disagree with "my general thought about Bitcoin , it will never have a real future". People also said this when the internet was first created. "Someone" created this a true one-world currency. Now it has been widely accepted as something of value. Think about who had the means and motive to create bitcoin and think about what this means with the upcoming crash of USD and possibly the world economy. Use these to add to your theories and I think we are getting a more complete picture. All the best ~