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deliciouspodo
Aug 12, 2018 5:54 AM

Hedge (1x short) here Short

Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX

Description

Rationale:

If whales are going to dump it, GREAT!

If whales want to pump it, they would accumulate in the lower range anyways

Expecting one more leg down
Comments
SamiWilf
Shorts out number longs on bitfinex. That has me concerned there may be a short squeeze, as that's what happened the last time shorts out numbered longs. What's your opinion?
deliciouspodo
@SamiWilf, I don't think one should try to analyze the # of longs vs shorts. That last time(BGD), there were some signs that whales were accumulating hard.
Right now, I think whales are distributing at 6500. I would wait for confirmation before shorting rather than predicting it. (wait for divergence)
SamiWilf
@deliciouspodo, I hope you end up being right that shorts outnumber longs doesn't matter. Price just hit 6700.
SamiWilf
@SamiWilf, You wrote " I don't think one should try to analyze the # of longs vs shorts". But why not analyze that? Whales go where the money is. Liquidate longs or liquidate shorts. Whichever makes more money
deliciouspodo
@SamiWilf, I am underwater short with avg 6580.
Some of the massive shorts are by the whales themselves. I see this going to max 7k not more. Whales probably loaded a shit ton of shorts by the fuckery at Bitmex
SamiWilf
@deliciouspodo, I'm in agreement. I noticed a bit of accumulation on bitstamp. But there was more distribution on Bitfinex, so I was seeing conflicting signals. Maybe they were manipulators in conflict. Also 1 week stoch rsi and rsi favor downward movement. I also looked at the stoch rsi, rsi, and volume of the top 10 altcoins. I didn't see accumulation like I saw before the past two pumps this year.

With that said, I do think shorts > longs is a fact that weighs against a dump. It's all about taking all the bits and pieces of information and weighing them and seeing which side of the scale wins in the end.
deliciouspodo
@SamiWilf, If you notice, most of the trading was in the top range of 6400~6600, unlike April where it spent a significant time in the bottom accumulating

I could be wrong of course, but I definitely saw a lot of distribution at Bitfinex
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