I just saw your chart on Twitter, and it always there are some differences between this one. This chart indicated a spring in the ~$2000 range. Is this still your interpretation or is the Twitter chart your updated reading? (Looks like heading to the $1000 region). Wild. Love your work and approach! Cheers
Yo @CryptoCapo_ I really enjoy the content you put out here on tv, twtr, and tg over the years. This post is a bit nostalgic to me, reminds me of your thoughts now, market already bottomed yet you were calling for 2k, seems like a similar setup to what we have now, market bottomed at 15k while you are calling for 12K, curious to hear your thoughts on this and what similarities/differences you see and what you have learned since this post?
quantumfly
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A lot of news out there indicating BTC will boom. Not buying it. The ascending wedge is bearish (if we apply classical chart analysis). Volume is falling. Whale movements indicate BTC is heading towards exchanges (possibly because some whales intend to sell). Retail investors will be under unprecedented pressure to sell just to pay for their groceries in the absence of other income due to unemployment and global economic meltdown. Wives/husbands/partners of risk-addicted moonboys/moongirls will pressure them to sell in case BTC price collapses. Institutional investors will avoid risk-on investments during a financial crisis because how can they justify buying BTC in the current climate. But most of all, look at the chart. This is a classis V-shaped ascending wedge....happening after a major price plunge in the midst of a multi-year bear market. The macro is obviously still bearish. How many times have we seen V-shaped ascending wedges following major price falls? A lot. The vast majority were short lived, and failed to break key resistance levels.
There can be no certainties in BTC trading, but the current chart indicates, well beyond a mere balance of probabilities, that much lower prices for BTC are entirely possible if not probable. Expect sub-6k prices in the next few weeks....factoring in the possibility that the CME Futures Gap at circa 9k could be filled, but most likely this will not happen until the next hype cycle (and this is not the next hype cycle, not yet). The probability of sub 3.8k prices itself turns on whether we see sub 5.8k prices etc, but this is not looking good, despite all the talk of 'it will change the world' and 'its going to the moon' and 'some rich guy said BTC would be worth £250,000 soon'. Forget the news and forget the hype. Look at the chart. Though price could theoretically spike (for example to fill the CME Futures gap at circa 9k), more likely we will see continued declining volume, at least some Whale sell offs (which in a low volume market is a big deal), retail investor meltdown due to cash flow issues arising from unemployment, and general wtf arising from the health crisis.
I am sitting on the fence, waiting for sub 5.8k prices before then assessing whether sub 3.8k and sub 2k prices have become more probable. Read moonboy news at your peril. Many are hodlers who bought at the top end of the market...and therefore you would be allowing shils to influence your trading decisions. Chill out and wait for confirmation in these uncertain times. This is not trading advice. Anything could happen.
spyxo2x
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It won't be that easy most likely. High bounce [12k - 20k] before 2.2k methinks
ihancioglu
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changed your mind, sir? You were said this range distribution. Also as I followed you on Twitter, you were called perfect for 5k bottom with DJI fractal and you were said I will be bull as soon as drop to 5k. Now you were calling to 2k. Hopefully you will not call 1k then :)
@ihancioglu, The dataset from which probability based trading decisions are made, is in constant flux. Therefore, one can make an entirely valid decision based on current data (a decision which cannot logically be criticised or undermined) before doing a complete U-turn the following day based upon additional market data. Accordingly, traders who do not change their minds regularly based on additional data are just not paying attention and will get reked. Change is the only constant (Heraclitus....as amended)