Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
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The recent drop in BTC fits well with the narrative of a speculative bubble. Between the awareness and the mania phases of a bubble formation, there is a bear trap.
Bear traps are characterised by a dismal outlook - where price breaks through support without looking back and without any real bounce. The "trap" aspect comes into play when the market recovers with surprising strength.
I believe that $3500 was the bottom, and that we are about to see a strong recovery to $12,000 by Christmas day.
This recovery will likely begin with a 2-3 day impulse wave to test resistance at around $5,600 - $5,800. After this, a test of $5,000 should prove bullish, resulting in a 2 week 140% bull run to $12,000 by Christmas.
The Daily RSI is showing indications of a bullish reversal, with support being found at 30. The MACD has also maintained a cross for around 3 days. The ADX is also very high, sitting at 50, which indicates a potential reversal.
This prediction is made with the bursting tech bubble in mind. Please see the linked ideas for more information on the longer term economic factors at play.
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Potential Head and Shoulders reversal with neckline at 4000, breakout could be timed with downtrend resistance at 4000.
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Possible EW 3 - 4 pattern
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Updated targets: EW 3: 5400 EW 4: 4600 EW 5: 12000
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Timing may also be a little off, $12,000 may not hit until new years
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3 failed breakdowns can often mean a break up is on the way.
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After the recent breakdown of support, I reassessed my Gann placement, which has changed the targets back to the original prediction: EW 3: 5800 EW 4: 5000 EW 5: 12000 Price may drop to touch 3600, but my mid and long term outlooks are extremely bullish.
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wedge support touch and rejection = bullish
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I made a typo in the second last post, the pattern is meant to read: 1/2 Week Bull 1 Week Bear 1/2 Week Bull 1 Week Bear
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Blue bar pattern taken from blue rectangle
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Outlook and targets remain the same. Don't let the bear trap fool you
Order cancelled
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3500 support is broken, analysis is invalid. I still believe that this is a bear trap, and am looking for a reversal pattern to spark a rapid recovery. The following head and shoulders could be completed by the end of the year, but I will wait for the formation to complete before posting another idea
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Original TA and impulse structure may be invalid, but original targets of 5800, 5000 and 12000 are still viable. 12000 is likely to be reached by the end of the year, or very early next year.
This is a great thread! I really enjoyed all of the related ideas as well. Thanks for sharing!
OrigamiOracle
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Thanks for the feedback @CryptoChey! I'm glad to hear you're finding my analysis valuable (despite the recent short-term inaccuracies). I hope it can continue to provide value as the longer-term predictions unfold :)
Chey_3
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@OrigamiOracle, np and will be fun to watch the LT projection. the last post above seems to still be in play unless we break below ~3600