Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
Description
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Fundamental: Everyone wants BTC before fork to get B2X, price should technically continue to rise. Everyone and their dog is margin long. Price should drop sharp post fork once people collecting B2X close their margin long positions.
Technical: BTC broke the channel top, the next clear limit is the 2.6 fibonacci retracement from the 2.9k bottom, at 8.4k. However, the pace of the increase now is too rapid to align with a 8.4k top mid november. Profit taking will cause further correction. A sharp drop back to the lower trend line is likely, followed by a 10 day climb to the 8.4k pre-fork top.
Comment
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Fork is cancelled, so the fundamentals are broken :( Timing of rebound was close but magnitude was off, so much FOMO
Dare me to say this....this is very logical b/c there is a lot of support around that 6000 to 6200 level, but I don't belive it will fall to the .61 retracement, 1) not with Segwit2X futures trading at $2000 2) not with the recent influx of capital entering the market.. Coinbase anounced 100,000 users in 1 day, if every one bought 1 Bitcoin, that's 3/4 of a $ Billion coming into the market every day only in the U.S. let's say $2 billion coming in worldwide based on U.S. trade marketshare at around 30%, so in the next 90 days that will be $270 billion. That's just coming into the market. If at least of the BTC holders held, so that's $60 billion plus $200+ billion that would be doubling our market cap from here in 90 days. Maybe we fall to 6670 based on your FIB understanding? Fibonacci sequence is obviously the best indicator with crypto moves but are there any other indicators that would account for price movements, given a limited supply investment beginning to receive extremely large gains in retail & institutional support? I don't even know how to account for this. It's like the rate of accumulation is accelerating all of a sudden.
salaryman
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@Krisworldwide, Thanks for the extensive analysis and reply! It was very helpful for my own analysis too.
I agree with you on your analysis about the inflow of new capital. However 90 days is a very long time for Bitcoin, at the start of August we were trading at 3k and we have since doubled market cap and risen to more than double the price. So doubling of market cap and price in the next 90 days is a completely fair assessment in my opinion, assuming we keep up the rate of new users.
The road that will not be as smooth as most expect, and I think just as the highs are much higher than most people have been able to guess, the lows have become much lower as well. Just 2 days ago we were able to shave off 8% in 40 minutes, here in Japan we fell 130,000JPY(almost 1.2k USD) in the same 40 minutes. There weren't even any fundamentals to explain that flash crash.
I expect we will see a lot of fear mongering in the coming days by leading crypto media outlets and traders in order to push the price down as far as they reasonable can, so that they can re-accumalate just before the final run up to the high on fork day with their margin longs.