Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
Description
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Will the bears or the bulls take the throne of Bitcoin?
Thank you very much for checking by and appreciating the clickbait :P
Well...welcome dear crypto-traders and crypto-tradesse. I would like to share an interesting thought I had due to the very recent pump. China announced that Blockchain as a whole will impact China´s economy significantally in the future. Not Bitcoin or currencies, but the blockchain and layering techniques which are bound to it, will be part of its infrastructure.
Okay...Let´s just jump right into TA:
We can see the 200 Moving Average reaching a critical point. It touched BTC on April 2nd and what followed was a major uptrend to 14.000USD which peaked on June 27th. So this is a gain of 200% within 80 days, crazy right?
Now, the 200MA has touched BTC again on 25th of September. What followed was a dump until October 21st to 7000$. Then the China news catapulted Bitcoin to 10700$, which is a gain of around 45%. "Sick gainz" would a crypto enthusiast say at this point ;)
Nevertheless, people took profit again and it kind of prints a bullflag right now. During this Flagbuilding BTC hit the 200MA again and we are at this point now.
What does it mean? -200MA testing is a major event
Why is it so important? -The 200MA on the daily chart shows us, how BTC correlates to it and what direction could possibly be hit.
How did the 200MA impact Btc? -200MA on the 1-day Chart hit BTC twice only -(on this chart: Bitcoin/ US Dollar Perpetual Swap Contract on Bitmex) -The first time it crossed was on Feb 2018 after the 2017 Bullrun. What followed was the crash from 20.000 to 3000USD (85% down) -The second time was on April 1st, and what followed is the recent growth this year 2019 (wasn´t even an april fools)
Long story short: Whenever it hit the 200MA, it rather significantly goes up or down. And with down I really do mean down.
Now, btc hit 200MA again, the third time on September 25th/2019 and it tried to go above the 200MA again on October 10th at 8800$, but could not confirm that to stay above. Instead it lost its steam and quickly dumped to 7k. Then China news and pumped to 10700$ withing 48 hours. Crazy story. If you tell this your grandkids, they won´t beleive you were part of this era :P
Outlook Coming to an end: I think the major move has happened in 2019. There might be a chance to make higher highs and break 14000, but it would no have any consitency. Why would I say that? Easy: Because no fundamentals have changed. That easy. There is literally nothing what happened to bitcoin. Of course its Dev-Team is working hard on BTC, on the lightning network and other implementations, but you get the idea. There is no reason, why Bitcoin would rise again and start a new bullrun. The only thing you should know is, that there are people, entities and groups which accumulated a lot of BTC and they play with it how the want to.
Not even the price of 9000 right now is justifiable. I mean why? Sure its great to see Bitcoin making higher highs, but why? It has, as of right now, no impact on the big boy markets nor is it used in retail anywhere. There might be some coffeshops which use btc for fun, but there is no real "real world" value right now. Is it good or bad? Honestly I don´t know. I really like the blockchain as a construct and software, which produces and creates trust. Verifying data is pretty important I think and saving important data for everyone to locate is a good thing too. But there is actually no reason for a uptrend, unless people want to profit from others or newbies who want to invest money which have no idea what they are getting into :P
With this words, let us keep an eye on this. I really enjoy all the messages I get and the small community around us. I am sorry if I can´t answer to all the messages. Anyway, feels great to share thoughts with you,
Great read - can I ask what your view is on btc imminent direction?
Thx Andy
GER-Quality-Trades
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@adomakin, @adomakin, Hey Andy, thanks for getting in touch : -)
I will make a new chart for the current situation very soon!
There is no buying pressure right now, volume at about 200Millionen on the 10 real exchanges (the volume on coinmarketcap is exchanges´ washtrading mostly).
Miners receive 12.5 BTC every 10 minutes in addition to the mining fees. This means there is not much of a "ask" right now, after the very last parabollic bullrun this year to 14K.
In my opinion, retesting the low of 3000 USD would be a normal behaviour, because 11000USD gain withing a few months without any significant change to the BTC system and infrastructure is not, in my opinion, justifiable.
Therefore, I think a retest of lower levels, which already happend and is happening right now (retest of lower 8000--8400) is definitely possible and healthy for a organic growth. This is just my opinion.
Levels of retest would be (they change when price moves either up or down, but speaking with a view on the orderbooks):
-8400
-7400
-6000
-5400
-3100
and possibly lower, we dont know, people snap with their fingers and it goes to 1k or 30K.
Someone said, you would need 40Billion USD to buy 25% of all BTC. You know, it sounds much but for banks and big groups or privates, it is nothing compared to other transactions worldwide.
please dear community and Andy, be careful!
your ger-quality-trader :)
GER-Quality-Trades
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@GER-Quality-Trades, Additionally, retest of 3000 does not mean it has to touch 3000$.
Btc is moving down and is checking if there is support, this means is the selling pressure bigger than the buying pressure.
If a level breaks, the next one gets tested and so forth until one point, the resistance line holds, because the selling pressure is not enough to sell through this wall.
This can happen at 8400 right now or at 7400, 5400k or any other level of support :)
mohsen-asadi
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yes, but always never explained to ordinary people any tech , only told us use this from today :) !!!!!
GER-Quality-Trades
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@mohsen-asadi, thanks mohsen-asadi, I try to keep it simple since TA can be very complex and confusing! Thanks for you reply tho :))
Thx Andy