Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
Description
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I only see comparisons to the 2014/15 bottom.
I made the same mistake of comparing this rally to the 2014/15 bearmarket, which was one of the reasons why I came to the conclusion that we would see a sell-off to the 1800-2300 USD range with a strong capitulation spike as in early 2015.
However, it seems that BTC doesn't wanna repeat the 2015 low.
We had no capitulation, just this weird bottom without a strong volume spike like back then.
Looking at older BTC history, this seems to me more akin to the 2011 bearmarket and subsequent 2012 small rally. The bottom back then shares the same weird characteristics with the current one.
No real capitulation, and then after some accumulation, it went directly into the small 2012 rally.
I definitely see some similarities here. If it plays out similarly, the 0.618 fib level is the one to watch, it would be around 4400-4600 USD in our case.
Since we are so brutally overbought on 1d, 3d and 1w, we could see a quick spike down to retest logarithmic resistance, see my other idea, which also lies at 0.618 fib support.
But now enough for today lol, I am posting charts like a crazy berserk, I should do something else now, hehe :)
market participants are different. + we have bitmex rekt machine
alpdemalp
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I've been following you for a long time and I like your opinions. But this is not good comparison for me. It just started to move more mature and slower. It's still trying to put out its bubble. That's what the best thing is to short this shit whenever it tries to go 2x from its bottom. And when october comes that is our entry for long and HOLD time until 2023. and of course this is my opinon. thanks your charts.
SebastianofMoon
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@alpdemalp, I'm always open for other opinions, no problem :)
I am unsure myself, and the best thing ist to just buy coins the whole year 2019 and cost average. That way you win either way. There are arguments for another low in 2019, but also arguments against it. I was short term bearish until not so long ago, and now got more bullish. But I always talk in probabilities, therefore there still is a probability for a new low in 2019. I am not excluding it. I just say it "feels" more unlikely now. Anyway, thanks for your opinion :)