Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
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Bitcoin seems to have finshed 5 waves uo from 3.5 K and could now be forming a wvae 2 og higher degree. It seems that the move down form top is forming a leading diagonal towards 30.4 k area to form the first bearish wave down.
Alterntive we could have an ectended 5th wave where we have finished wave 1 and wave 2. wave 2 being a double zigzag (wxy). If thats the case we should not go below the previous low of 33 k.
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The expectation is that we go Down in a zigzag to 30-31 k area to finish a leadin diagonal from top something like this
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This looks like a leading diagonal finished as wave 1 Down
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Appears that the move up was a zigzag. Im looking at These 2 possible patterns to play out shortterm. Blue or yellow count. Still unclear if move from top to bottom was a leading diagonal or a series of 1 st waves
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Messy structure but I Think the bottom was a triangle and a 5th wave.
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Looks like 5 waves up and possibly a zigzag Down if this bottom holds. If it does we could expect c wave up to around 61 fibonacci the green Line
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Hmm. This does not look like a zigzag. Looks like another 5 wave move up. If top breaks it changes the count possibly like this
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Alt. Double zigzag
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Think we get a new High making this a 5 wave structure from bottom.although the possible diagonal from top is not completely invalidated yet its becoming less likely. Its more likely that we either get an ext wave 5 on the weekly tf or we are in a bigger triangle currently in the proces of a d wave like tjis
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If we get a new lokal High and we are in an ext 5 th wave we could have 2 first waves on a bigger degree . We Will have to see how rsi reacts to a new High if it comes.
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Shortterm count from previous bottom. 5 wave sequence on lower degree it seems
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We are correcting in a wave 2 Down shortterm
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W 2 could be finished
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Looks like we get a flat correction here
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A bit surpring but now we Can assume that the top was an ENding diagonal and not a b wave. Previous move up ( that looked 5 waves)must have Been a double zigzag. That takes me back to my original primary count diagonal Down from ath. We must break below blue Channel next
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Let see if we get this move
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Wavecount on small tf is not easy to see. Not a clear 5 wave structure Down . We might have done a zigzag if the middle was a triangle. Fussy at the moment however.
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If it was a zigzag. Bevare that this count could be in play.
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Looks like a 3rd wave coming Down here
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Or a cwave to 40.5 k.
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Narh . The move up from bottom was 5 wave structure. Equality between blue 1 and 5. And that wavecount is confirmed by rsi. We now correct in a bigger wave 2 or possibly b to the area between the 2 green Lines. Probably take some time with choppy wave action. After correcting a new 5 wave structure up could be expected.
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Still more Down. Possibly a c wave Down to the White dotted Line
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Looking if this comes. If it does its a wave 2 on lower degree and we should get a move up towards 64 k to finish a bigger wave 1.
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Something like this.
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Looks like a 3rd wave Down. Not a zizag
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Might be a zigzag but then it should be finished now. It looked very step for a c wave though. Lets see if we recover from here
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Leading diagonal. Potential for bullish move further up
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Tricky correction here. Think we Can assume that it was a wxy correction that has finished. It corrected to 0.61 to the point.
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Looks like a 5 wave structure Down of some sort and not a corrective wave. Cant say im confindent on this count but it seems we are in a 4 th wave now.
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New lows incoming. Maybe a diagonal from top?
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Have gone through the scenario with a diagonal from top to 30k. This cannot be a diagonal afterall since wave 4 was longer than wave 2. So that count is invalidated. So if the move Down from top was a double zigzag the cycle from top has ended indeed unless its not zigzags. So that Can only mean that prior move yp to 44 k up was only first leg of a counter move up of some sort.
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So this scenario because the diagonal pattern is invalidated
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If new lows comes the bearish scenario would be that its a y wave Down or a 3 rd wave of diagonal. We might be forming a Big flat correction from the 2 alth then with target at 28 k.
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Looks very much like we get another zigzag down to new lows. If we get a zigzag down then we have a triple three correction. Since it cannot be a diagonal - it Can only be a c wave of developing triangle or a wave 2 ( if it retrace less than White Line.
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5 th wave coming Down
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A triangle seems most likely at the moment. Move Down from top - I dont see it could be a 5 wave structure. Pretty sure its a double zigzag.
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Looking for b wave to finish. Could be a wxy (y wave being blue abc) or a triangle.
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gone through the wavecount from top. it might be a 5 wave decline afterall. on 4h we can see that the possible 5th wave did make a divergence on rsi to the 3rd wave (that is not visible on higher tf, which tricked me). if it is a 5 wave decline, we are about to tank - possibly to 21 K. this scenario and the above triangle scenario are both possible for now.