Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
Description
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My recent led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My closely mirrored my price and time targets | before the end of 2018.
“ The daily candle could be viewed as bullish (inverted hammer) but I think it is a bearish wick and the following candle finding resistance at the top of the body and quickly violating the low is confirmation.” Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 (partial profit) | Short ETH:USD from $205.20 & $196.32 (partial profit) | Short EOS:BTC from 0.000808 | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00758
Patterns: 15m is fitting into a tight trend, whereas the prior selloffs occurred in much less time Horizontal support and resistance: S: $4,700 - $4,750 | R: $4,876 BTCUSDSHORTS: Daily chart is very interesting. Nasty wick indicates a wave of liquidations, however the price barely bounced. Looks like it is primed for another wave down. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% Short term trend (4 day MA): bear Medium term trend (9 day MA): bear Long term trend ( 34 day MA): bear Overall trend: bear Volume: Beautiful volume tells me that $5,000 - $5,200 could become strong resistance FIB’s: Was watching Tone Vay’s show today and he was drawing a higher TF fib at $4,750, however I still prefer it drawn at $4,262 Candlestick analysis: Bearish marubozu, if short is in profit can move stop to the 50% mark of today’s candle (I would prefer it above $5,200) Ichimoku Cloud: Need to zoom into the 15m chart for the cloud to be useful (shows resistance $4,915 - $5,085 TD’ Sequential: Daily r4 shows 4-5 days left to the downside. Weekly r2 shows 7-8 weeks left. Visible Range: Next average volume node is $3,619 - $4,366 | Next high volume node is $2,015 - $2,761 Price action: 24h: 12% | 2w: -22.36% | 1m: -23.89% Bollinger Bands: Close below the bottom band is very nice at this stage Trendline: Channel I was watching broke down. 15m has been in a beautiful trend since then Daily Trend: bearish af’ Fractals: he next daily fractal that I am seeing is at $4,265 and that is exactly where I am expecting the next selloff to find support. RSI: Daily RSI has not ever been this low (at least on Bitstamp) Stochastic: Recrossed and now it is diverging. Expect it to get stuck at the bottom like we saw in May.
Summary: I cannot remember the last time I posted an hourly chart for the Daily Update, and I know that I have never posted a 15m chart. Those who follow this post generally do it for my macro view / TA. I won’t make it a habit of posting TF’s under the 4h, however I think this is a good learning opportunity.
A general rule of thumb it is okay to watch lower TF charts when volatility is high. This hasn’t really been the case over the past couple months because we would consolidate, then make a move in < 30 minutes, and then consolidate again.
Now we are forming a very nice trend on the 15m chart and that is much more natural / tradeable. If you have taken the shorts I recommended over the past week then you should be looking to take profit, if you haven’t already. It should always be done in portions and here are a few ideas:
15m - 1h close above the trendline that is drawn above. Close above the 4 MA on the 4h chart. You could also move the stop to somewhere above $5,200. I strongly prefer covering my initial position when this deep in profit and then letting the profits ride with a trailing stop.
If you still are not in a short position then you missed that move and need to wait for a bounce. I don’t think that will happen until the $4,200 - $4,400 range, however that does not mean this I would even consider opening a short after that move.
Comment
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Blue arrow in the top left is meant to highlight the low time frame (15m)
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Just realized that if you are not in a position then shorting alts vs btc could be a good option. There are a number that are very vulnerable right now, ETH, LTC, EOS to name a few.
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Anything under 4.5K seems like a very good place to take profits. Cash in and hold onto 10% -25%.
do you think itll take till january till reaching <3k? if we keep dropping at this speed Id figure it should be way faster? seems like the drops are accelerated & manipulated as everything else in this year compared to how long it took 2014-2016.
Sawcruhteez
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@moviestar, I do. I am expecting a bounce to $5,000 over the next 1 - 2 weeks and maybe even a bear trap to > $6,000. If either of those scenarios occur then it should take another 4 - 6 weeks to retrace below $4,000.
ReallyMe
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Looks like it is going to 4.3k... If it does not hold, may God help us
Zero-Tokyo
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Yeah, this is definitely a great learning opportunity. I appreciate the different analysis. I'm surprised some of the ALT coins aren't crashing too much (Yet?). Perhaps later this week? Keep up the awesome work.
Sawcruhteez
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@Zero-Tokyo, I think that BTC will get a bounce from $4,000 support that should retest $5,000 - $5,200. If that happens then I expect alts to sell off hard.