BTCUSD has clearly been ranging for the past few weeks. Anytime I see a trading range such as this I think Wyckoff accumulation/distribution. Since it may still be fairly early in the trading range, I am throwing together my analysis on a distribution and a reaccumulation case and what the possible outcomes may be. Here is how I see the distribution case panning out, if that be the case. We are in the midst of a show of weakness (SOW). We have broken below the ICE and should be making our way towards a point of last support (LPS) in the coming days. If we fail to break back above the ICE may mean a "drowning" for the market. However, it is possible, and likely, that we break back into the TR and find support on the ICE once again. If this bounce occurs on weak demand (low buy volume) or high supply (high sell volume) then we should look to initiate our first short position. Ideally we would wait for a second LPS with our stops being above the prior.
My target would be the 1.618 fib extension of the AD bearish gartley I posted a week or two ago. Link Below. PT $7000-$8000
*THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE, SIMPLY MY OPINIONS AND THOUGHTS*
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On target for the orange scenario. New lows incoming.
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Markdown phase confirmed. Still targeting mid $7,000's. I anticipate an extended consolidation/rally afterwards, but will update accordingly.
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This is why I am glad I post ideas for tracking purposes. Our current rally is stalling just shy of the bottom of this trading range (white horizontal line at $11.7-12K)
Will be interesting to see where we go from here. We COULD be at an additional last point of support (LPS). Potential continued downtrend to $4600. Otherwise rally continues to 14K-17k.
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About to make another update so posting this past one to consolidate into one thread.
Damn, this was pretty accurate. Might have to pull out in the 11500 range and see what direction we take.
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@donyewuc, Either here or where that blue line is drawn (the ICE) @ 14k. Breaking back above the ice usually proves the bigger challenge with distribution. Tricky thing with it is that it is not a static resistance.