Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
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I am asking myself, as surely many of you also, why is BTC just not correcting, how can this be? It's basically overbought on all timeframes, and really extremely overbought. On 1w, 3d since 2 months now almost.
This only happened twice before in the history of BTC: June to August 2012 and January to April 2013. Now there is absolutely no similarity to the situation from January to April 2013.
However, I noticed quite an astounding similarity to 2012. This chart here is meant as a more precise version of my previous 2012 fractal idea.
Back then, BTC was also overbought on the 1w and 3d timeframe for 2 months, without any sign of correction, after a long bearmarket. It is very possible that we see such a scenario repeat in some way. History of course never repeats, but it rhymes as Mark Twain said :)
The ellipses show some remarkably similar fractals. Back then it also went higher than thought, right throught the VPVR. If it were to do something similar, we'd see 7500 as the peak of this rally.
It would subsequently correct to around 0.618 fib support at 4800-4900 USD. If this happens, then for me any remaining doubt of a new low, would be completely wiped out. Then the chances for that happening basically vaporize to almost complete zero.
Highly interesting stuff in my opinion, and I will definitely keep a close look on that fractal. If we get a strong breakout to the upside in a few days at the latest, I see the fractal as highly likely to occur in a similar way. I started buying some altcoins just in case, hehe. Some are still very low imho and still a good buy. They always burst out with delay, don't forget this old rule of the crypto market :) Hint: XRP looks highly interesting.
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BTC doing its thing again:
Nice ascending triangle waiting for breakout.
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Here a zoomed in version of where we might be today, if the 2012 fractal holds true:
In 2012, there was a very similar spike, that retraced almost to the 0.5 fib level. We might do the same here. Many expect the 2014/15 fractal repeat, I am still unsure. It could be. But the fractal surely is interesting and a real possibility.
I'll continue to monitor the developments the next days.
VPVR resistance at 5500 is quite hight, afterwards, the next really strong resistance is starting in the 6000-6500 area, so once it goes through 5500, it will push really quite higher.
And then we'll indeed see if the 2012 fractal holds true, because in 2012 it just went through the VPVR resistance by about 20%. Therefore the target of 7500 for this move.
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The dip i drew yesterday happened. Now, if the 2012 repeat takes place, we should stabilize at this price for a few more days maximum, until it bursts through the 5500 resistance. I am curious, really curious, if that will be the case.
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Top authors: "Limited upside potential..." "Correction to 4200 imminent...." "2015 fractal repeat, RSI at same level like back then...."
This leads me more and more to believe that we'll indeed see surprising upside potential for BTC:
The daily candle at least seems to indicate until now, that BTC wants the 2012 repeat as of now.
Let's hope it stays like this, we could see a nice pump to at least 6500 (VPVR resistance), but maybe even 7500.
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Slowly creeping upwards:
2012 fractal repeat still possible.
Only a decisive break into the 4xxx territory on a large dump will invalidate the 2012 fractal idea.
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Nothing has changes since the last update. BTC continues to push towards the resistance and will probably soon break through. After 5500, no resistance till 6500 !
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So it seems that the 2012 fractal is indeed getting more and more likely. BTC just needs to push through the very strong 6.5k resistance.
It could overshoot that resistance, only to be then pushed back at 7500, which would confirm the 2012 fractal.
Let's see what happens at 6500.
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Press the play button and enjoy :) It took a bit longer than I anticipated, but the 2012 fractal it is!
7500 wil be a tough one to crack, and I think there finally comes the point for a larger correction.
But this confirms one thing: Sub 4k area bye bye.
The lowest possible value that BTC can attain now after the correction is around 4700.
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As foreseen we have hit the 7500, and have bounced off it.
That resistance is too strong yet, and we need to consolidate first. But I tend to think now that BTC will even take down that resistance, instead doing the more aggressive 2nd 2012 rally fractal:
Three things are needed in the stock market: clear planning, discipline and patience. Now is just a streak on which patience is needed.
attributed to ReallyMe
:)
SebastianofMoon
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@ReallyMe, Hehe, nice! I hope your saying will also get mentioned as Markt Twains, 100 years from now :)
ReallyMe
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@FlaviusTodorius67, many thanks :-)
ReallyMe
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FWIW, my current view is that before BTC can start a rally of up to 7.3k, it has to go through the very tough resistance zone at 5.4k.
At the moment, it looks like BTC might have been rejected on the 5.3k barrier and is returning to 4.6k.
If 4.6k doesn't hold, it might even drop to 3.8k. These are just my current thoughts. We will see ;-)
SebastianofMoon
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@ReallyMe, Yeah, this is a realistic scenario :) I am unsure myself also, it looks as if it's 50/50, hanging there in the balance. 5500 is a really strong resistance, and it indeed might have been rejected as you say. But I don't know, I try to reshape the way I think about BTC, because I was wrong about the low, kinda like: What could BTC do that would surprise me the most? Therefore I am unsure, even though your idea sounds like the most realistic one, hehe!
But we will soon see :) Anyways, thanks for sharing!
ReallyMe
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Absolutely. Nobody can see the future, if we could, we wouldn't be posting our views here, would we? ;-) Best wishes!
Grandmaster_Nitemare
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Very nice work!
Will be exiting if it follows your chart or the last bear market structure (-30%) ...
RSI is really extreme. Finally some exiting times in Cryptoland again! :-)
SebastianofMoon
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@Grandmaster_Nitemare, Yes indeed, it was getting a bit boring before this spike :) And it will be indeed interesting which path btc will prefer, the 2014/15 bearmarket or the 2012 structure. Or of course, something entirely new, because we know that btc likes to surprise us, hehe!
mowgliasia
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Hey Flavius,
Check the 89EMA on weekly TF. It is strong resistance now just as it was strong support at the $5.8-6K level. If we break it with volume, I think we see higher prices.
Best,
Mowgli
SebastianofMoon
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@mowgliasia, Hi Mowgli, thanks for the advice, I will take a look at the 89EMA immediately :)
attributed to ReallyMe
:)