Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
Description
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Disclaimer:If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Sawcruhteez Strategies: | | |
Consensio: Bullish
Patterns: Potential bear channel Horizontals: S: $7,570 | R: $7,912 & $8,126 Trendline: Bull TL is waiting at $6,700 - $6,800 Parabolic SAR: Just broke 4h bear SAR Futures Curve: Backwardation Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0125% BTCUSDSHORTS: At support TD’ Sequential: W: G9 | D: R5 Ichimoku Cloud: Daily cloud in line with bull TL Relative Strength Index: Bear Div Average Directional Index: Daily sell signal Price Action: 24h: -0.34% | 2w: -1% | 1m: +37.39% Bollinger Bands: Daily MA in line with horizontal resistance at $8,200 | Weekly MA at $5,177 Stochastic Oscillator: Daily buy signal
Summary: I have not been posting on Trading View as much as I had planned and that is primarily due to starting a daily podcasting schedule with Tyler Jenks on Youtube. We have been covering the Bitcoin Price Action on a daily basis and because of that public analysis I did not feel compelled to update here.
Moving forward I will be committing to two Trading View posts per week, in addition to the daily updates on Youtube. Posts on Trading View will continue with the same format that most viewers are familiar with.
As of late I have been most interested in the developing bear channel as well as the 50 and 200 EMA’s on the 4h chart. As it stands I expect price to retest the top of the bear channel ($8,100) before selling off to $6,700. That is where the bull TL waits and I would view it as a great buying opportunity.
Litecoin is the main reason why I am rethinking that call. It is often a market leader and it just had a ~10% rally while BTC has stayed flat.
It is back above the 50 EMA on the 4h chart and is postured for a bullish crossover with the 9 EMA while testing the top of it’s newly developing bear channel. If it breaks through that boundary then I will likely change my tune and expect BTC to follow. Nevertheless it currently appears to be finding resistance at that area.
If LTC closes a 4h above $112.50 (Coinbase) then I will likely be turning bullish on BTC, with the assumption that LTC is blazing the trail. If it finds resistance at $112 then it would likely foreshadow similar action in BTC and would confirm my original outlook.
CME BTC Futures called in payments on Monday, June 3rd and Bitcoin subsequently dropped.
There was also a report that a whale sold 25,000 BTC @ $215 Million on Coinbase then bought it back @ $200 Million after the drop.
These kind of drops generate a $1,000 dip with candle wicks dipping an additional $200 - $500.
Another whale drop would bring BTC in line with $6,700.
Dan from Chartguys also uses other assets as market comparisons, a skill that I have yet to put to good use. That's something I might now start taking note of when I remember it. Thanks for pointing it out, I think it might have just sunk in with the way that you put it.
I use a 180MA (Red) in my charts and I have found it useful on the 4hr lately.
What I find interesting with the 180MA is its correlation across timeframes as compared to the 200. For instance, it translates beautifully down into the 2hr into a 360MA (Dark Red) where the price currently sits just above the 50EMA (White). This is where I can do some fine-grained analysis with other things. The 180 is now looming above as resistance and the 90MA (Orange) is speaking to me as well. Thos are playing out as key areas to break for Bullish continuation from my angle.
What I've just noticed as I'm typing, is the tiny little black spot appearing below the Gravestone Doji. That spot combined with the larger black area above is signalling the lower Bollinger moving into the Keltner Channel. Typically, but not always, this is a momentum squeeze where price action will move one way or another.
Zooming into the hourly, I can see that my 90 has converted to a 180 with major resistance above at 360. As you can probably tell by now, I've based my moving average system off of angles in a circle. I'm simplistic that way.
You can also see a small demonstration of the momentum squeeze at play.
Overall, I think the Daily is at a precarious area with the 7MA getting ready to cross the 30MA (Consensio) and the earlier time-frames are the ones that I've been keeping a close eye on.
I hope you didn't mind me sharing my take with you if so, let me know and I'll refrain from doing so in the future.
I really appreciate the work that your doing and your years of experience and insight have been invaluable to me. I've learned so much just from paying very close attention to Tyler since his first vlogs and having you in the frame now has really been great for me. I've learned so much from you already and I hope to learn more over the coming years.
Thanks!
SheikYirbuti
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I made a mistake and posted the hourly twice, sorry about that. I won't spam your comments with the updated image unless someone asks for it. People can look for themselves.
Sawcruhteez
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@SheikYirbuti, Thank you for the kind words and for sharing your analysis, I find it very interesting! I haven't heard of using angles in a circle for the MA's and that is quite intriguing. Thanks again for sharing!
SheikYirbuti
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@Sawcruhteez, Interesting. I would have thought that other people before me would have tried something different like that. I'm not tied down to traditional thinking because of my brief exposure to technical analysis at just a year and a half to date. I have found that the default traditional settings in Crypto just don't validate in my mind so I've had to force my indicators to match up with what I'm seeing. Bitcoin, after all, is a different beast.
For instance, take a look at this KRAKEN:LTCUSD Weekly when I add a 90ma to it. I heard your excitement on Youtube this afternoon so I decided to take a look. I used Kraken in this instance because it shows longer historical data than Bitstamp.
Adding the 90 does support your bullish exuberance but I would personally be careful.
Nobody in the space is using this, that I'm sure of and I still have lots validation to do in order to merit its use but the volume profile I've been working on (below) is showing me that it could have topped and might reverse or go sideways. This thing does have a tendency to have wild divergences, so I could be reading it wrong. If that's the case, take my advice with a grain of salt because every other indication is Bullish.
Dollar cost averaging your allocations might be wise.
Take care and thanks for today's vlog with Tyler. I missed the first half, so I'm going to go catch up.
SheikYirbuti
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Daily is Bullish but slowing down according to my volume analysis. In the previous image, the red volume bar above the 15ma along with the white top is a point of concern for me.
In this snapshot, the Daily Volume bar needs to get above the Volume 15ma.
The 180 (Red) is now about the cross the 360 (Dark Red)which is a bullish(potential) sign, but also a point of resistance to watch for.
I could go into further Bollinger/Keltner analysis and I could also make a case for Donchian analysis as well on this chart. LTC really does look interesting to watch. I'm really glad you pointed it out with Tyler. I've been testing my unorthodox methods on BTC only. Maybe I'll move on to ETH as well since you noted how technically perfect it is. This might help me validate some of my weird methods. I'd be happy to share my results if you're interested.
Take care.
SpartaBTC
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Interesting trading idea
DACapitalTrading
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Great setup, following you now mate! I´m about to post a trade shortly, have a look on my profile for detailed information :)
There was also a report that a whale sold 25,000 BTC @ $215 Million on Coinbase then bought it back @ $200 Million after the drop.
These kind of drops generate a $1,000 dip with candle wicks dipping an additional $200 - $500.
Another whale drop would bring BTC in line with $6,700.
-ADUMB-