djuuss
Short

Bearish indication for Bitcoin; targets and triggers inside.

KRAKEN:XBTUSD   XBT / USD
Legend;

Yellow is a fib extension from ATH to the first 10k drop to the 17k bulltrap.

Light blue is a fib projection from 5.8k to touch of the bearish trendline at 11790 - the previous rally.

Bright pink is a fib projection from all time low on this chart (~150) to all time high.

The red trendline is the ATH to 17k trendline .

Technicals;


Hourly bearish divergence,
Ascending wedge breakdown into formation of a Head and Shoulders pattern, at expected bearish channel resistance.
Hourly bearish cross of the 20EMA and 50MA


Elliot wave count suggests wave 4/5 in the current bear trend is underway.

Signals


Confirmation: Obviously, a breakdown below 9500.
More aggressively, a break below 9753 with a stop above 9892
more conservatively, a breakdown of the daily 200MA, currently at 8529


Targets;

Clear target is 50% of the rally at ~8800, also the 1.0 of the yellow fib extension and ascending wedge breakout target (although generously measured; more stringent measurement puts the target at 7822)

A breakdown of the H&S pattern at the intersection between the neckline and the 0.382 fib of the rally projects out to a target of 7569, or within 1% of the 0.382 all-time fib level at 7587

On the way there, 8350 should offer interim support based on previous price action as well as it being close to the daily 200MA, and 8031 is both a psychological level as well as the 0.618 level of the rally, and might provide ground for a bounce. A rally there would be a very bullish signal, and we could expect a 15 minute or hourly wick to touch the 7587 level but not close below 8000.

Bottom target is 3500; but don't count on it. Plenty of fib levels and trendlines supporting before this point.
It would be the 1.618 target of the fib extension for wave 1 and 2 of this bearish move, and we did just get turned at the 0.618 of the same.
Still, we can reach our 7500 target and bounce up above current prices before making another attempt at these new lows, which would be beyond the scope of the current analysis.

Analysis debunked if:

Back above 11,800 invalidates the H&S pattern.
Any 4h close above the red bearish trendline invalidates the bearish trend this analysis is based on.
More conservatively, a return to the next (dark blue) gann-fan level.

Chart provided for educational purposes only; this is not investment advice.
Comment:
Neckline broken, being retested on the 5 minute.
Comment: >More conservatively, a return to the next (dark blue) gann-fan -0.49% level.


Neckline got tested and retested and finally held; we are back above one of counter-indicator levels.

However, hourly close above 10354 would give me cause to call this trade over. Either way, the H&S pattern has been invalidated.
Trade closed: stop reached
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