Odd Time Pattern With Bitcoin - Alternate Path (Short Squeeze)
As an elliot wave analyst, its important to consider all valid paths that could possibly occur, because its important to know what to do if things don't go in the expected direction. I've been calling down for a while, and still believe that my $3k target area will be hit. My other analysis have even said that we will probably break down below the most recent support line soon. BUT, what has drawn my attention are three things.
1) Market sentiment is TOO bearish. People think this thing is going to fall through the floor NOW. I think it will fall through the floor... BUT, in crypto, i usually try to trade against what the market thinks is going to happen. Because that is what whales try to do. They try to take people out, take their money, so that when accumulation time comes, they have a bunch of fear and no money to enter back into the market. Right now, shorts are skyrocketing and longs are decreasing. Guess what that means? The likelihood of us shooting up, has actually increased for me.
2) So another analyst on twitter (ChartVamp) showed this odd pattern here with BTC and how a big move happens on the 5th of each month (blue vertical lines). Then I took the chart and noticed that there are pivot points between each interval (yellow lines) on the 17th of each month. These pivots occur on the subwaves (a) of each wx/yx (with the exception of the b wave on the expanded flat on December 17th).
3) If you looks at the 3 Day and Daily MACD and Stoch RSI, they all look pretty prime for a ride up, right? The hourly time frames may look bearish, but the high time frames look like a reversal may be necessary. So I'm actually going to close to short positions soon, And I'll wait on confirmation. If we fall below $7055, then I'll short, otherwise, I'm looking for a big long breakout.
Now the two times where there was not a major pivot point (yellow line) was between major moves between (X) waves. I may be making this chart a bit prematurely with some bias. But it appears that we may shoot up in the short term with a big fall that follows, UNLESS we manage to stay in this lower area for 4 more days (which is unlikely to me), then the next big move would be to go up. The thing is, is that we've never shot up on the 5th on a (w). That is where we'd be right now, and it would be similar to the (W) wave on the 24th of December that did NOT occur on one of these time intervals.
Overall, my $3k thesis still stands. But it is a matter of how we get there. That is why this time is very crucial to how we approach these setups. Personally, I don't care if I show a few charts with different possibilities. This is a game of probability. If I'm putting a lot of money on the line, all I care about is being on the right side of the trade when big moves happen, and being prepared for the worst. I don't care about only having 1 analysis that is right. Trading is a game of probability and possibility. I've found this possibility with some supporting data, so to me I have no choice but to consider it.
If we break through $7600, that is a buy signal for a small swing trade in my opinion. The important thing to consider here is to not fall for the FOMO trap if we do go up hard and fast. Don't say "moon," because reading the count as it is now, still definitely appears to be corrective. Counting waves on this possible uptrend would like be difficult because it these types of uptrends happen in ABCs. We've also reached the 29% goal of the daily MACD trend, soooo, maybe it is time for us to move up again before a big fall? What do you all think?
Alternate counts for the short term are in the related Ideas. The Daily MACD trend in there as well, and a few other posts that you all may find to be useful! Safe trading!
1) Market sentiment is TOO bearish. People think this thing is going to fall through the floor NOW. I think it will fall through the floor... BUT, in crypto, i usually try to trade against what the market thinks is going to happen. Because that is what whales try to do. They try to take people out, take their money, so that when accumulation time comes, they have a bunch of fear and no money to enter back into the market. Right now, shorts are skyrocketing and longs are decreasing. Guess what that means? The likelihood of us shooting up, has actually increased for me.
2) So another analyst on twitter (ChartVamp) showed this odd pattern here with BTC and how a big move happens on the 5th of each month (blue vertical lines). Then I took the chart and noticed that there are pivot points between each interval (yellow lines) on the 17th of each month. These pivots occur on the subwaves (a) of each wx/yx (with the exception of the b wave on the expanded flat on December 17th).
3) If you looks at the 3 Day and Daily MACD and Stoch RSI, they all look pretty prime for a ride up, right? The hourly time frames may look bearish, but the high time frames look like a reversal may be necessary. So I'm actually going to close to short positions soon, And I'll wait on confirmation. If we fall below $7055, then I'll short, otherwise, I'm looking for a big long breakout.
Now the two times where there was not a major pivot point (yellow line) was between major moves between (X) waves. I may be making this chart a bit prematurely with some bias. But it appears that we may shoot up in the short term with a big fall that follows, UNLESS we manage to stay in this lower area for 4 more days (which is unlikely to me), then the next big move would be to go up. The thing is, is that we've never shot up on the 5th on a (w). That is where we'd be right now, and it would be similar to the (W) wave on the 24th of December that did NOT occur on one of these time intervals.
Overall, my $3k thesis still stands. But it is a matter of how we get there. That is why this time is very crucial to how we approach these setups. Personally, I don't care if I show a few charts with different possibilities. This is a game of probability. If I'm putting a lot of money on the line, all I care about is being on the right side of the trade when big moves happen, and being prepared for the worst. I don't care about only having 1 analysis that is right. Trading is a game of probability and possibility. I've found this possibility with some supporting data, so to me I have no choice but to consider it.
If we break through $7600, that is a buy signal for a small swing trade in my opinion. The important thing to consider here is to not fall for the FOMO trap if we do go up hard and fast. Don't say "moon," because reading the count as it is now, still definitely appears to be corrective. Counting waves on this possible uptrend would like be difficult because it these types of uptrends happen in ABCs. We've also reached the 29% goal of the daily MACD trend, soooo, maybe it is time for us to move up again before a big fall? What do you all think?
Alternate counts for the short term are in the related Ideas. The Daily MACD trend in there as well, and a few other posts that you all may find to be useful! Safe trading!
If we can't break through this resistance, we are going DOWN.