I will upload a short-term post on the possibilities that we may see very soon. I think we have already seen the start of the downtrend, but its possible that we could still go up to 8.7k
Anyways, This is not FUD. This is real. Please, I don't want to hear it. Understand that this is a possibility, not a probability. BUT, I can say, that I have been talking about this triangle for a while. I knew to take profit at 9.9k when everyone was screaming "MOON." It was a pretty clear sign of a distribution phase. Is it possible that we break north of this triangle without touching the bottom? Sure... But that would not change my long-term views on Bitcoin for this year. It just doesn't look good for Bitcoin. Do i care? No, because its gonna rebound regardless, and I'm going to accumulate the hell out of Bitcoin before it sky rockets to $35-100k. Seriously.
Back to it. There is a chance that we can go to the bottom of this triangle and bounce up. But honestly, I really don't think that will happen. I will be ready for it. But by that point, everyone will think "WE'RE SAVED! The bottom of the triangle is here to save us!!."
If I here all of the market say that, then 100% I am keeping my short open and waiting for us to fall through.
Another touch on the bottom is likely. Is it possible that it doesn't happen? Like I said, sure. We could break up, and I'll buy into strength, but its looking ugly. Ugly ugly ugly.
So please. Like I've said before. You should probably not have buy orders at 7.8k.. Cause that area will likely not hold. It doesn't fit the wave count principle, unless SOMEHOW something crazy happens and we get some weird WXY correction. I'm not going to have buy orders at 7.1k either. Because I need to see what happens at that level first. I can't jump to conclusions as to if that area will hold or not. I'm seeing so much in these charts and everything is just making more and more sense to me.
So, I'm keeping this strictly to wave count on this post. But if you'd like to see WHY all of this is happening, check out "Does the daily MACD trend continue?", "Consider Taking Profit in the Market" and "Similarities in Mt. Gox".
To catch yourselves up from where where we've been the past couple weeks, check out Roadmap and Roadmap pt 2.
Thanks guys. Be safe out there! Short-term update coming!
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I do have an alternate count where we double bottom at 7.9k and break above the triangle and head to 12.8k. But that still doesn't make my long-term view of BTC for 2018 bullish.
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Short-term update
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Support is obviously broken. Confident that we are on our way to 7.1k now. 8.7k is off the table so far.
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Here is the alternate count. Like always, nothing is guaranteed. So even though 8.7k is off the table, if we break 8.5k then this would be my backup plan. I'd go long and stay long.
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Alright the alternate count is already debunked LOL. That was short-lived. Guys get ready for 5.3k.. its coming
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Oh this update is just short term. Wave 3 (of 1) seems to be ending here. This last portion should conclude wave ONE. Wave 1. UNO. - Of the big drop off.
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OMG... I spotted another bear flag. Please be careful with longs. If $7400 doesnt hold then we will see $7200 before a bounce.
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Nice bounce. Hit my target that I sat last night. Long position is in. That should conclude wave 1 of wave 3. Working on wave 2 now! Everything is on track for the first target of 5.3k
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Warning on BTC! There will be a drop soon into that green box, but I can't say if we fall all the way through or pop back up to retest that resistance. If we fall now then to me that would be almost way too soon for wave 3 and wave 3 would probably be shorter than wave 1. So be careful with longs. And be ready for anything to happen in the short term before this next drop.
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Stayed up for a little longer, but we fell as expected and we should be taking the blue path today.
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Almost forgot to post this on here for you guys. Whales are getting a little too predictable now with elliot wave. I predict another pump to come shortly... If we dont get it, then we will probably fall into a triangular pattern and then fall to the next target zone. Of sub 6.6k.
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Possible alternate count!
My recent tweet has the chart explanation. I'm just with family and too lazy to rewrite it. But here is the tweet link. :) Much love
Okay i have like 5 places i send updates too now, so sometimes i forget lol... this is my plan for today.
Also, i’ve noticed that i’ve been really lazy and haven’t explained charts like i use to. And also haven’t done much educational posts. Stick with me here LOL, i’m a procrastinator at heart.
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Starting to think this will happen.
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So this is what I'm expecting, but there are a few things that concern me about going long or expecting any major reversal to the upside that I'm going to tweet about in a few. That's why I'm really staying conservative with an uptrend here.
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We took the yellow route. Now we need to consider these things depicted
A quick one.. Assuming a 5 wave sequence has commenced, we should expect an ascent about the region of $7700/$7800 down to about $7400 and then upwards from there (Sub-wave 1, 2 & 3 of wave 1) . Your thoughts ?
Elijah_Trading
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@pseudomania, I'm still bearish. I need to see it break more resistances before I count impulse waves. I'm still seeing possible ABC sequences. Fomo is real for the market, and this just looks like a trap.
UnknownUnicorn416662
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@Eball8, It seems to me that BTC may have completed wave 4 of its primary cycle, which was in effect a large triangle (started in November 2017) and it is about to embark on wave 5. Would you please consider and give your input ?
UnknownUnicorn416662
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@pseudomania, Sorry the chart below is so merry .. just want to demonstrate the primary EW cycle which I mapped out.
UnknownUnicorn416662
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@pseudomania, merry = messy
Elijah_Trading
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@pseudomania, you're short term count is definitely one of my alternates. But its has a few problems with it that make me not think that it is the correct count, such as being a 3-3-5 and not being a flat. Also, there are a few problems with the other chart that you've shown. Your B wave would have more than 3 waves, and expanded Flats only happen in ABCs not ABCDEs. Also, breaking down 5 waves within your C wave has caused trouble with me, and I don't think that section would be a valid 5 wave count.
Cryptokachalka
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good job bra!
TheFomoKing
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Thank you for the updates eball. Very helpful info. I also like to compare my analysis to yours. Different perspectives are important to have.
Elijah_Trading
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@TheFomoKing, thank you! I appreciate the kind words!
UnknownUnicorn416662
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Dude . .you nailed it first time round. We are not going up.