Short term bearish view on BTCUSD: Fib channels.

KRAKEN:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / U. S. Dollar
For me, a likely scenario could be BTC dropping until Q2-2022, then long-term building up for next ATH .


Using long term fib channels we see that sell territory has always begun above the 0.5 line. When this had been reached, a correction to the channel below 0.236 followed suit - time for buyers. After BTCUSD has been in the channel above 0.618 it didn't drop there yet. That's where it may go next (scenario A).

Why not moving further up, into scenario B?

BTCUSD had never made a correction through more than 2 channels during a bullish phase. Now it already went through 4 of them. There are no new psychological or fundamental reasons why this time should be different (like the corona drop was in 03-2020). This makes scenario B rather unlikely for me.

This is not a trading advice, just my private analysis.