Bitcoin Headed Towards Greatness or Disaster?

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Things are still looking bad, bears still seem to be in control at this point. From what i can see, think 11500/700 seems to be an important level to break for the bulls. Because if they don't manage to break that, the right shoulder of that possible H&S stays alive, making this bounce up we just had a lower high before we break down. The nekline is still around 10800, so if that breaks we will very likely see a big reaction down. Depending on the volume and the size of the drop , we can judge if it's just a correction down inside the bull move, or that the H&S is real and we will drop into the 9K levels again.

I have also drawn a bigger triangle on the left. Because for that time frame there are 2 options:

A double top: This will get triggered if we break the 9600ish level, but we already need to start worrying if the 10400ish breaks.
A triangle: We see the 10800 hold (maybe room for some wicks below it) and we continue to move higher again.

I personally never really believed this whole rally was real the past month or 2, but i kept my personal view on the down low because on needs to judge this market objectively. But past days, especially since the alts dumped so big, i can't hide my worries anymore. With markets trends, we have strength and we have insanity. Until like the 8K, i could still think about strength. But since the parabolic move above 9/10K, i simply never trusted any of it and it just didn't feel right. So instead of thinking this rally was super strong, i kept having fears it was just one big short squeeze simply to be able to cash out at prices nobody ever dreamed of seeing this soon only 4 months ago.

For now, as mentioned, think the 11500/700 is important for the bull to break. If they manage to do that, short term bearish pressure/danger might be gone already. Support levels are mentioned already. I think if we see the 9500/9700 break, we need to think about 8K prices again. The insane rally to 13900 began from 7500ish, so that is probably still an important level as well.

Now it's time to show off a little bit :) I kept posting updates in mu public channel past week and predicted some nice moves:

Not to scare any bulls, because still look quite strong so far. But if, so if we see another volume drop now, we could get a sell candle on the right. So if we drop with big volume to like 12700/800, then make like a bear flag there, we could see another drop to low 12k. If that happens, we could be getting an H&S in play.

But so far bulls are very stubborn, just like they were during the 13900 rally. So normal TA doesn't really work here. So this message is not that we will drop , just to make it clear. Just giving a warning, that if we get another big volume push down withing like half an hour or so, what i described above might become likely. For now think we can say the 13000/50 is a support zone and the 12900 as well

Sorry everyone, still very busy. I see yesterday's potential low was the low again. At the moment looks like we might still be in a correctional wave. Low time frame, dont want to say anything now. The middale chart, blue line is the ideal scenario. Which also can be seen on the chart on the right.

If it goes up and with low volume , it will become more likely. So creating like an inverse H&S on the right and eventually a bigger H&S in the middale chart.

General warning, It's almost weekend again. Don't get trapped!!!!

Before i forget, also showed the temp low between this two as well :).

Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)

Previous analysis:

Comment: Dropping during the weekend like this, doesn't happen often. Alts took a big hit once again as well. Still looking very bad at this point. If Bitcoin doesn't break this bear flag on the upside, we could see another dive down. Because we are below the 10800/900 zone now. Which was a big support level several times and is the neckline for a H&S.

Comment: Still a potential support here on the left. It can hold. If it holds, we could have a (small) bull trap on our hands here.
We are still below the neckline of the H&S, but the lower we hang against it, chances slowly increase it will break up through it again. When looking at the wicks, maybe there is even room up to 11.000ish for the retest of the neckline, but think above 11k, H&S might be invalidated and the bearish pressure, at least short term might be gone

Comment: It's taking a lot of time now, still that "bear" flag below the 10800ish neckline. Usually should not take this long. Next to that, the bear flag is starting to look more like an accumulation flag. There are 2 options when a flag shapes like this:

1) Either extremely bearish flag, meaning the market is that weak, that it can't even shape upwards like a normal flag. That would indicate a big dump, like 500/1000 points.
2) it's accumulation.

Option 1, is very rare but happens. Actually a third option would be what i have drawn. So a weak break up and then turn down again. Anyway, good to keep a close eye out.

Comment: Was some noise in the market, showed a triangle in my channel of ETH that was probably better to follow, which it did. Now we might have a temp low on our hands. But it will depend on if the 10500/50 holds and creates another bounce up or not. If it fails, anything can happen. After the big dump we had past week, a correction up becomes likely, but the market is just very weak still. Seems like the only pushes up are cause by shorts squeezes and not real buying. This is why all the moves up simply failed and price came back down to make new lows very quickly. Market is always at it's weakest at the lows, but doesn't feel like this is the end of it yet for the mid-term

Comment: Looks like a bearish wedge in the making now. So a move down short term is more likely. 2 options for now:

1) making a higher low around 10.000 and complete an ABC
2) or we simply continue to drop to what i think is the target around 9500/9200.

Calculating the target if this wave is a bit difficult, because it could even have been reached yesterday, but this weak bounce tells me that is not likely. Unless, we make that higher low around 10.000 and THEN see a big strong fast high volume bounce up.

10400ish is a resistance now, if that breaks, we can also start to assume the wedge isn't real and something else is going on.

Comment: New Bitcoin analysis:

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drop likely
excellent forecast and study, logical and practical. you're my only guide here, thanks a lot
botje11 godtrix
@godtrix, thank you and your very welcome :)
I need you to do something for me
@raven_, if you ask it a little bit nicer, than maybe I would :)
Amazing! Update please...
botje11 rifatrony5
@rifatrony5, I am updating in my channel more often
@cd1603, not at home so then I update on in my public channel because it’s easier
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