BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
i see two inverse head&shoulder can possibly playing out inside the falling wedge ...my plan is to long at 3370-3385, stop is right below the last low at 3350...if the support 3350 breaks, bull has the last chance to fight up, around 3320-3250. The reason i only playing long here, the RR is much better for bull, while i still have my shorts from 4180...unless i see an impulse wave up, i wont cover that short. On the other hand, the long/short ratio for btc and eth is around 1.1 now, this ratio is not helpful to predict the future trend anymore. PS: when long/short above 1.3, dump usually comes, when long/short below 0.7, whale usually pumps to force the short to cover at higher price.
Comment: the bounce is pretty decent, it hits the expected target, at 3468 (0.382 fib). We will start to retrace back to the 3400-3430 support, the right shoulder will probably form from there. If this is the first impulse wave up, after we form the right shoulder we should see a strong spike to break the trend line of the falling wedge.
the alternative scenario: we still have one more leg down to test 3200-3300, its less likely based on the recently price action imo
Comment: what i see in the current price action: wyckoff accumulation...patiently waiting for the expansion, the invalidation point is we drop below 3k.
Comment: the price wicked down to 3380, looks like a stop hunt for me, or shake out before we trend up. But overall eth is looking too bearish again. i moved the stoploss to 3378, if it drops again, then the better entry for long will be 3320-3350. stop below 3300
Comment: by the way, 4h obv is still trending up. i strongly believe its just a shake out before a big green candle to break the wedge
Comment: everything looks on track, should see big green candle in a few days!
Comment: Target might be 3520, maximum 3600, eth and btc has too many margin long(these are resistance), while short is stay relatively low. stop moved right below 3400. we are getting an W bottom here (temp bottom). I dont think there will be enough momentum to push too high.
Comment: the update in another post
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