Bitcoin Daily Update (day 268)
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: "Until then I am looking to short alts vs BTC and I am preparing to buy back spot BTC (time horizon is > 2 years)."
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434
Patterns: Symmetrical triangle inside a (4h)
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,542 | R: $4,066
BTCUSDSHORTS: At trend resistance slightly below my alert. Very interesting to see if we get a short sqeeze here.
Funding Rates: Longs receives 0.115% (10X the normal rate)
Short term trend (4 day MA): Found resistance below on the close indicating that a long is unwarranted right now based on Consensio.
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Right in line with the top of the
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Key area of resistance for me when we get a bounce (not saying it will be here, am saying that is dialed in to catch the top of bounces)
Overall trend: Bear
Volume: Largest was November 20th, watch for the bottom of that candle to be a key area of resistance on a bounce
FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $,4056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
analysis: . Very important how this candle responds. Opening and staying above the top of the body is . Breaking down the bottom of the body is .
Cloud: 1h cloud was clean resistance and is thick from here to $3,960
TD’ Sequential: Current candle is price flipping
Visible Range: Broke down the bottom of the high node ( HVN ) at $3,877. Refilling the gap below is to be expected. Next HVN = $3,077
Price action: 24h: +2%
Bands: Starting to come off the bottom band. Watch for a return to the MA.
Trendline: from symmetrical triangle (blue) is right under the 34 MA (4h chart) at $3,900. The top of the = $4,120
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Starting to flatten after trending down hard
Parabolic SAR: $4,412
RSI: See a small bull div’ following the high selloff.
Stochastic: Was finally trying to get up and now it looks like it wants to recross again
Last Day Rule: Watching for close above $4,112 for setup day.
Summary: If we can breakthrough the 4h bear trend and support a throwback then it would be a very good sign of an incoming bounce. The daily close below the 4 MA puts me in a no long zone until a candle closes above.
There are a lot of indicators showing a short term bounce to $5,000 or above, however there are some very strong indicators that say it is too soon to buy. There is too much resistance and momentum for the 14 day trend that started on November 14th.
This is a clear no trade zone for me and I will leave my small buy orders set at $2,700 - $3,000 (greater than 2 year time horizon).
In the mean time I continue to expect alts to start falling like dominos. I have been holding my EOS:BTC short in the red for over a week. It feels great to finally see a red candle close below horizontal support. Entering a short on a retest for resistance looks like a good play to me.
It is okay if it was an emotional mistake instead, however it is not okay if you aren't willing to admit that to yourself. Delusions are the enemy of profitable trading and enlightenment. We have all shorted the bottom before and the lessons are often worth more than the costs. A few suggestions I have is to not open a short when the daily RSI is < 30 and / or don't enter a short when the price action is -10%, or more, in the past 24 hours.