Bitcoin Daily Update (day 211)
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “When the get a super squeeze it is important to keep in mind the possibility of a fakeout. A quick runup to $6,800, in the matter of a couple hours or less, is exactly what I am hoping for.” / Entered short due to re exploring wick on 4h , placed very tight stop and lost < 1%
Horizontal support and resistance: 50MA on 1h chart acting as support at: $6,600 | R: $6,796
BTCUSDSHORTS: Tried to bounce, now it is pulling back below 29,000
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: +1.24% | 26: +1.11% and posturing for crossover
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: +1.24% | 128: -2.69% | 50 acting as support and 128 acting as resistance. Will price get squeeze into a golden cross??? 128 MA acting as resistance and angling downward on 12h.
Volume: Already seeing big and today’s candle and there is still the meat of the trading day in front of us. spike above $6,750 indicates buying climax.
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
analysis: Daily forming.
Cloud: Daily cloud continues to hold strong as resistance. 12h cloud acting as resistance as well. 4h cloud is thinning and had a kumo twist. Indicates shift in trend and thinning resistance.
TD’ Sequential: Daily is getting a price flip. 12h G4. 4h R3
Visible Range: Back above the point of control with a 1 year lookback.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.7% | 24h: +2.51% | 1w: -1.37% | 2w: +2.24% | 1m: -3.17%
Bands: Price touched the top band and found resistance. Still room for a full on fake out to $7,000 - $7,150.
Trendline: Last rally perfectly touched the from the .
Fractals: Up at $6,827 was not violated. New down at $6,299 shows range tightening ever further.
On Balance Volume: Slight bull div on weekly, will it create a higher low? Showing slight div’ on daily as price is closer to a and OBV’ looks more like a .
ADX: Lowest has been since March.
Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on daily.
(30 setting): W: 46.24D: 52.56
Stoch: re cross on daily and 12h.
Summary: I am starting to get excited. The longer we consolidate the bigger this next move is going to be. As long as we can remain patient and properly manage risk then there is a lot of money to be made in this next month!
I have included a couple extra charts below to reiterate where I believe we are in the bubble cycle. If you have not already done so then take a look at my most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison.
If the prices breaks down, as expected, then we should be prepared to make some very high probability bets. $6,000 will become iron clad resistance and we will be able to take out large short positions over the coming months upon a retest. If $3,000 holds as support then we will use that as a area to flip the position (cover shorts and open longs).
$6,800 is where I am hoping to build shorts, but that price may not come after the high pullback we got a few hours ago while I was asleep. If $6,575 breaks down or we get a good reversal candle then I will start re opening my positions.
If that doesn’t happen and we enter the next bull market then we will change our tune very quickly. Strong opinions loosely held! If we break the triangle, create a higher high on the weekly and breakthrough the daily cloud then it will be time to open large long positions.
When you are prepared for both moves then there is nothing left to do but sit back and wait. Regardless of what happens over the next few hours/days/weeks I will be ready because I am remaining consistent and unemotional!