I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “When the Bollinger Bands get a super squeeze it is important to keep in mind the possibility of a fakeout. A quick runup to $6,800, in the matter of a couple hours or less, is exactly what I am hoping for.” / Entered short due to re exploring wick on 4h shooting star, placed very tight stop and lost < 1%
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: 50MA on 1h chart acting as support at: $6,600 | R: $6,796
BTCUSDSHORTS: Tried to bounce, now it is pulling back below 29,000
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: +1.24% | 26: +1.11% and posturing for bullish crossover
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: +1.24% | 128: -2.69% | 50 acting as support and 128 acting as resistance. Will price get squeeze into a golden cross??? 128 MA acting as resistance and angling downward on 12h.
Volume: Already seeing big volume and today’s candle and there is still the meat of the trading day in front of us. Volume spike above $6,750 indicates buying climax.
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
Candlestick analysis: Daily doji forming.
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily cloud continues to hold strong as resistance. 12h cloud acting as resistance as well. 4h cloud is thinning and had a bullish kumo twist. Indicates shift in trend and thinning resistance.
TD’ Sequential: Daily is getting a price flip. 12h G4. 4h R3
Visible Range: Back above the point of control with a 1 year lookback.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.7% | 24h: +2.51% | 1w: -1.37% | 2w: +2.24% | 1m: -3.17%
Bollinger Bands: Price touched the top band and found resistance. Still room for a full on fake out to $7,000 - $7,150.
Trendline: Last rally perfectly touched the trend line from the descending triangle.
Daily Trend: Bullish
Fractals: Up at $6,827 was not violated. New down at $6,299 shows range tightening ever further.
On Balance Volume: Slight bull div on weekly, will it create a higher low? Showing slight bearish div’ on daily as price is closer to a double top and OBV’ looks more like a bear flag.
ADX: Lowest ADX has been since March.
Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on daily.
RSI (30 setting): W: 46.24D: 52.56
Stoch: Bullish re cross on daily and 12h.
Summary: I am starting to get excited. The longer we consolidate the bigger this next move is going to be. As long as we can remain patient and properly manage risk then there is a lot of money to be made in this next month!
I have included a couple extra charts below to reiterate where I believe we are in the bubble cycle. If you have not already done so then take a look at my most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison.
2014
2018
If the prices breaks down, as expected, then we should be prepared to make some very high probability bets. $6,000 will become iron clad resistance and we will be able to take out large short positions over the coming months upon a retest. If $3,000 holds as support then we will use that as a area to flip the position (cover shorts and open longs).
$6,800 is where I am hoping to build shorts, but that price may not come after the high volume pullback we got a few hours ago while I was asleep. If $6,575 breaks down or we get a good reversal candle then I will start re opening my positions.
If that doesn’t happen and we enter the next bull market then we will change our bearish tune very quickly. Strong opinions loosely held! If we break the triangle, create a higher high on the weekly and breakthrough the daily cloud then it will be time to open large long positions.
When you are prepared for both moves then there is nothing left to do but sit back and wait. Regardless of what happens over the next few hours/days/weeks I will be ready because I am remaining consistent and unemotional!
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “When the Bollinger Bands get a super squeeze it is important to keep in mind the possibility of a fakeout. A quick runup to $6,800, in the matter of a couple hours or less, is exactly what I am hoping for.” / Entered short due to re exploring wick on 4h shooting star, placed very tight stop and lost < 1%
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: 50MA on 1h chart acting as support at: $6,600 | R: $6,796
BTCUSDSHORTS: Tried to bounce, now it is pulling back below 29,000
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: +1.24% | 26: +1.11% and posturing for bullish crossover
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: +1.24% | 128: -2.69% | 50 acting as support and 128 acting as resistance. Will price get squeeze into a golden cross??? 128 MA acting as resistance and angling downward on 12h.
Volume: Already seeing big volume and today’s candle and there is still the meat of the trading day in front of us. Volume spike above $6,750 indicates buying climax.
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
Candlestick analysis: Daily doji forming.
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily cloud continues to hold strong as resistance. 12h cloud acting as resistance as well. 4h cloud is thinning and had a bullish kumo twist. Indicates shift in trend and thinning resistance.
TD’ Sequential: Daily is getting a price flip. 12h G4. 4h R3
Visible Range: Back above the point of control with a 1 year lookback.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.7% | 24h: +2.51% | 1w: -1.37% | 2w: +2.24% | 1m: -3.17%
Bollinger Bands: Price touched the top band and found resistance. Still room for a full on fake out to $7,000 - $7,150.
Trendline: Last rally perfectly touched the trend line from the descending triangle.
Daily Trend: Bullish
Fractals: Up at $6,827 was not violated. New down at $6,299 shows range tightening ever further.
On Balance Volume: Slight bull div on weekly, will it create a higher low? Showing slight bearish div’ on daily as price is closer to a double top and OBV’ looks more like a bear flag.
ADX: Lowest ADX has been since March.
Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on daily.
RSI (30 setting): W: 46.24D: 52.56
Stoch: Bullish re cross on daily and 12h.
Summary: I am starting to get excited. The longer we consolidate the bigger this next move is going to be. As long as we can remain patient and properly manage risk then there is a lot of money to be made in this next month!
I have included a couple extra charts below to reiterate where I believe we are in the bubble cycle. If you have not already done so then take a look at my most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison.
2014
2018
If the prices breaks down, as expected, then we should be prepared to make some very high probability bets. $6,000 will become iron clad resistance and we will be able to take out large short positions over the coming months upon a retest. If $3,000 holds as support then we will use that as a area to flip the position (cover shorts and open longs).
$6,800 is where I am hoping to build shorts, but that price may not come after the high volume pullback we got a few hours ago while I was asleep. If $6,575 breaks down or we get a good reversal candle then I will start re opening my positions.
If that doesn’t happen and we enter the next bull market then we will change our bearish tune very quickly. Strong opinions loosely held! If we break the triangle, create a higher high on the weekly and breakthrough the daily cloud then it will be time to open large long positions.
When you are prepared for both moves then there is nothing left to do but sit back and wait. Regardless of what happens over the next few hours/days/weeks I will be ready because I am remaining consistent and unemotional!
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/