I think alt season is bullshit…for now. But not forever. Read on if you’re interested. Stop here and go buy alts if you’re gangster like that.
I’m not here to burst any bubbles unless you’re pitching stocks, bonds, or real estate…in which case that’ll happen without my intervention. But let’s talk about alts for a minute.
Lots of calls for alt season, lambos, and nipple clamps during the recent surge. I was just as excited. I was also a shilling Litecoin and ETC like crazy earlier this year. Haven’t deleted those ideas, so go back and check my sort-of-bad advice…albeit with trading rules, so no unplanned losses happened. You have a rule based system, right? If not, borrow mine until you have your own. I made some money on alts and I dodged this recent plunge.
Alts seem to surge on the tail end of a Bitcoin bull market. Okay…so is Bitcoin in a bull market? Depends on your timeframe. Monthly, maybe weekly chart? Sure. Macro bull market all day. Daily and below? Definitely maybe.
Find the Bitcoin halving dates in the past or find someone else’s chart that has them marked. Notice the ATH-huge drop-bear market-accumulation-recovery bounce-drop-halving-bull run to ATH cycle. All of…two, maaaaybe three times depending on the chart you use…and they didn’t all look the same. Not a ton of history to go on, so no promises.
Now look at the Bitcoin chart above with a fib. I don’t use fibs for trading but I think they’re great in hindsight. From dead top of 2017 to dead bottom 2018 Bitcoin hit the .618 retracement and was rejected. No big deal, it was a fast run up. Plenty of theories out there on why it was and where we’re going now. Point being this was the only major crypto to reach that level that I know of. Correct me below if I’m wrong.
Now some major alts…
Litecoin made a run at .382
Ethereum Classic barely got off the ground
Ethereum had a little heartbeat but nothing substantial
I’m not saying alts are dead. I’m not saying Bitcoin dominance at this level is here to say. I'm not saying there isn't money to be made trading the gyrations of the alts. I’m just saying look at the big picture. We have Bitcoin halving coming up. If it shakes out like Litecoin did, we have the chance to ride a 5-6x move sometime between now and May WITHOUT many trades to make or charts to babysit. Then the dump, then the wait on mining difficulty to adjust, AND THEN the bull market. When Bitcoin reaches pants-shitting multiples we can’t fathom, maybe alts will slingshot ahead percentage-wise.
For now…break up with your beloved alt coins if you're sitting on them like eggs that'll hatch someday. That's capital you can leverage. Let’s try to catch the Bitcoin halving wave and not ride it down too far when it dumps. Then let’s build a reasonably weighted portfolio of Bitcoin and alts that’ll deliver life changing returns. Then lambos, nipple clamps, all that stuff.
**Side note - nothing wrong with a small bag of any crypto if you're a true believer who thinks it's the next monetary system. I think gold, silver, and cash in hand should be part of that plan too, but that's a topic for HODLingView...which doesn't exist.
Good luck. Please comment with critiques and ideas, especially if you disagree.
Nice work here. I am waiting patiently for the next bull run.
I stack crypto for long term wealth and savings. The idea is that one day in the future, only decentralized money will have value. We all know that centralized money has, and will continue to be, irresponsibly managed, stealing your wealth away with each passing year.
This next copy and paste is my personal stacking formula.
Stack crypto responsibly. (of course this is not financial advice)
Apply 50% rule for purchases
- purchase initial position using half the amount you want to invest
- only ever purchase more if the price falls by 50%, using half of the remaining amount
- you have an infinite number of times to purchase
- apply the same formula to any new crypto position
Apply the 10% rule for withdrawals
- sell 10% if position does 100x
- sell 10% (of the remaining 90%) if it doubles from there
- sell another 10% (of the remaining 81%) if it doubles from there and so on
- you have an infinite number of times to sell
Specific example:
- lets say you had $1000 to buy Monero in 2014
- buy 500 at $1.00
- in the next 15 months you would have bought 500 more at .50 cents
- and 500 more at .25 cents
- you now have 1500 monero (cost $875)
- in 2017 you sell 150 at $50.00 ($7500) (100x your average buy price)
- sold 135 Monero at $100 ($13,500)
- sold 120 Monero at $200 ($24,000)
- sold 109 Monero at $400 ($43,600)
- now you made $88,600 by selling roughly 1/3 of your original $875 investment.
- the remaining 986 Monero has roughly never been worth less than $50,000 and for a very short window of time it could have been sold for $493,000 in addition to the $88,600 you made along the way.
I currently apply the same formula to DGB, ETN, XRP, ADA, XLM, RSR, MFT, MATIC, LAMBDA, PRO, ZIL, VET, and some other less known cryptos.
Stack responsibly
People should pay me for this course! ha!
Do you think there will be many cryptos that 100x, 200x, or 500x in the next bull run?
I think so. There might even be a 1000x in there somewhere.
HRoark64
⋅
@gjmullen, I like it. That’s DCA taken to a whole new level. I remember DaVinci on YouTube pitching something similar but I didn’t take the time to write it down.
I’m not saying alts won’t be cash cows. I just don’t want people sitting in them when BTC 5x’s before halving, which would provide 4-5x buying power for a bag of alts. If the BTC position is solid, absolutely stock up on alts early for the potential gains once the market takes off.
awh2830
⋅
I own btc, eth, xrp, xmr, dash and knc. My plan is ultra long term. I'm not trading them i plan to accumulate them. Fiat money is dead is just a matter of time. Governments can't print and spend money forever eventually they reach terminal value which is zero.
I'm also huge in gold and silver they are the ultimate store of wealth always will be.
HRoark64
⋅
@awh2830, right on man. Nothing wrong with HODLing, especially given the statistics on trading success/failure. I agree on fiat but think it’s going to take longer than hard money advocates (I’m in the club) think.
I stack crypto for long term wealth and savings. The idea is that one day in the future, only decentralized money will have value. We all know that centralized money has, and will continue to be, irresponsibly managed, stealing your wealth away with each passing year.
This next copy and paste is my personal stacking formula.
Stack crypto responsibly. (of course this is not financial advice)
Apply 50% rule for purchases
- purchase initial position using half the amount you want to invest
- only ever purchase more if the price falls by 50%, using half of the remaining amount
- you have an infinite number of times to purchase
- apply the same formula to any new crypto position
Apply the 10% rule for withdrawals
- sell 10% if position does 100x
- sell 10% (of the remaining 90%) if it doubles from there
- sell another 10% (of the remaining 81%) if it doubles from there and so on
- you have an infinite number of times to sell
Specific example:
- lets say you had $1000 to buy Monero in 2014
- buy 500 at $1.00
- in the next 15 months you would have bought 500 more at .50 cents
- and 500 more at .25 cents
- you now have 1500 monero (cost $875)
- in 2017 you sell 150 at $50.00 ($7500) (100x your average buy price)
- sold 135 Monero at $100 ($13,500)
- sold 120 Monero at $200 ($24,000)
- sold 109 Monero at $400 ($43,600)
- now you made $88,600 by selling roughly 1/3 of your original $875 investment.
- the remaining 986 Monero has roughly never been worth less than $50,000 and for a very short window of time it could have been sold for $493,000 in addition to the $88,600 you made along the way.
I currently apply the same formula to DGB, ETN, XRP, ADA, XLM, RSR, MFT, MATIC, LAMBDA, PRO, ZIL, VET, and some other less known cryptos.
Stack responsibly
People should pay me for this course! ha!
Do you think there will be many cryptos that 100x, 200x, or 500x in the next bull run?
I think so. There might even be a 1000x in there somewhere.