BTC: Sell in May and Go Away?

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Bitcoin is struggling at the resistance line coming from late June 2019. This one is very critical and if we see BTC break it, this will put upper 9ks on the table and potentially even a CME Gap above 11.7k

This steep upward channel is almost 2 month old, the top of the channel finally reached and what we see last few days is a reaccumulation. The price is getting ready either for a last push higher towards the top of the channel or a "sell the news" action

Let’s zoom in

We’ve been ranging for 6 days and now we can look at it as a horizontal channel on 1h. Resolution is coming. Trade the breakout

Really overstretched on the weekly from the lows. We are working on an 8th consecutive green weekly candle! Last time we had something similar was… in April-May 2017 after which a 40% correction followed! (What a coincidence! Sell in May & Go Away at its best!)

Now let’s talk about what’s been driving the price

Bitcoin block reward halving is less than 6 days away. The amount of new bitcoins issued every 10 minutes will drop from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC

According to Google Trends, the interest towards this event exceeds the values of 2016 by more than three times! And we still have few days left for the media to heat the public up. And as we all know, the public is usually late to the party

The timing for the halving is perfect. It perfectly matches the Sell in May and Go Away Strategy, which is based on that statistically there is usually an underperformance in stocks during the summer and early fall months

Historically speaking, prior two halvings were a classic "sell the news" case. Will this time be different?


If you are an ultra bull, that’s what you should have as one of the main arguments

We are back above the log curve! It used to be critical support since the inception and the fact that the price managed to reclaim it looks pretty promising


Conclusion: Critical point is 8.5k. Break it and we lose the log curve on the weekly & support cluster on 4h. In this case the first target would be 8k. Until then the trend is your friend

Always remember: The market can stay irrational longer than a trader has money!


P.S. The long-term view has not changed. I expected this rise into the halving and a sell off around the date and still stick to it.

What do you think about it? This stuff really needs discussion. Share your thoughts in the comments!




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The information given is never financial advice. Always do your own research.

Comment:

Short term target reached!

3 days until the halving

Trade closed: target reached:

Resistance rejected the price as expected
Downside target zone reached!

Congratulations!