A resume of the idea: despite being very bullish in the long term, BTC may experience a "flash" crash in the next days, to retest key levels before taking off in the following weeks. Many key indicators are bullish (NVT for example), but they are longer term indicator. In the shorter term, there is a confluence of indications suggesting that BTC could revisit 9000 area before enjoying the results of the halving.
Hello, after weeks of sideways movements, it is time for watching at BTC from a different angle. I usually do not watch much at Moving Averages, but there is a very solid confluence of them on different timeframes.
The daily TF is on the main chart. BTC appears weak here, below the 20 and 50 MA and shily rebouncing on the 100. The 200MA, never retested properly since May, is at 9400.
The 3D is similar. 100 MA is at 9k and the 200 is at 8500
The weekly timeframe uptrend seems to to run out of steem after 6 months of run, as the SAR indicator is closer and closer. The 200 was already tested during the covid, but the 50 is at 8900.
The monthly touched the upper band of Bollinger but failed to brake out the SAR. The price still has to retest the 21 MA at 8800.
As you see, there are many timeframes, but all the values that need to be retested, and possibly act as a magnet to the BTC price, are among 8800 and 9000.
Since BTC is not showing any kind of strength, I believe a flash crash can happen or, in the worst of the cases, a consolidation to retest the 9k level that was never properly retested. The interval 10k-11k is still valid as an indication. Whatever the level that will be broken as first, it will tell us about the direction.
How low do you estimate the flash crash? Wick to 8700 or lower? I am curious about your thoughts.
edutradinguru
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@kennbmondo, Hello, it is difficult to determine. If the fall is "controlled" I expect a 8800-9000 level. But in case of unexpected thing as SPX fall or covid ripercussion as in March we can see BTC to 6xxx levels, even if for few hours. But this is just a crazy theory. Altought with btc everything is possible.