BTC just went from 4.1k to 5.1k range in a few hours today. Do we moon or doom?
Yes moon is possible but hmmm doom is possible aswell.
Lets analyse the pump to 5.1k first. BTC was in an ascending triangle so you could say that was the first bullish sign. Although many people thought there would be a dip to like 3.5-3.8k. But that did not happend! When BTC got above like the 4.2k A LOT of stoplosses were hit. Shorts were closed and bought instantly creating a big fat pump in BTC. Offcourse some FOMO kicked in and 5.1k was hit (a nice 1.618 fib extension target).
Moving averages
Resistance on the weekly 55 EMA. NOTE: this is only on Bitmex!
Support for now on the 200 DMA
Bullish scenario:
This 1.618 ext is part of wave 3 (maybe its not even finished and it goes to 2.618 at 6.2k (unlikely). More likely is wave 3 is done, wave 4 is in right now and wave 5 will follow (target 5.4 - 6.2k). After wave 5 is done the bigger wave 1 is done and BTC will have a bigger retracement (lets talk about targets when wave 5 is done). There will be enough opportunities to buy BTC cheap!
Bearish scenario:
This 1.618 is the completion of the second X of the WXYXZ. That means the Z will follow and BTC will be goin for a lower low. Target could be 1.8k.
Invalidation of the bull and bear scenario
Invalidation of the bearish scenario would be a break above 5.1k. Even better would be a daily close above this level. Plus a hold of the 200 DMA.
Invalidation of the bullish scenario would be a loss of the 200 DMA and after that the 100 and 50 DMA. To be sure the bearish scenario is in play the bears would like to see a daily close below 4k.
So first of all lets wait for the daily close. If its above 200 DMA the bulls have the advantage. Daily close below the 200 DMA and the bears have the upperhand.
Yes moon is possible but hmmm doom is possible aswell.
Lets analyse the pump to 5.1k first. BTC was in an ascending triangle so you could say that was the first bullish sign. Although many people thought there would be a dip to like 3.5-3.8k. But that did not happend! When BTC got above like the 4.2k A LOT of stoplosses were hit. Shorts were closed and bought instantly creating a big fat pump in BTC. Offcourse some FOMO kicked in and 5.1k was hit (a nice 1.618 fib extension target).
Moving averages
Resistance on the weekly 55 EMA. NOTE: this is only on Bitmex!
Bullish scenario:
This 1.618 ext is part of wave 3 (maybe its not even finished and it goes to 2.618 at 6.2k (unlikely). More likely is wave 3 is done, wave 4 is in right now and wave 5 will follow (target 5.4 - 6.2k). After wave 5 is done the bigger wave 1 is done and BTC will have a bigger retracement (lets talk about targets when wave 5 is done). There will be enough opportunities to buy BTC cheap!
Bearish scenario:
This 1.618 is the completion of the second X of the WXYXZ. That means the Z will follow and BTC will be goin for a lower low. Target could be 1.8k.
Invalidation of the bull and bear scenario
Invalidation of the bearish scenario would be a break above 5.1k. Even better would be a daily close above this level. Plus a hold of the 200 DMA.
Invalidation of the bullish scenario would be a loss of the 200 DMA and after that the 100 and 50 DMA. To be sure the bearish scenario is in play the bears would like to see a daily close below 4k.
So first of all lets wait for the daily close. If its above 200 DMA the bulls have the advantage. Daily close below the 200 DMA and the bears have the upperhand.
But check what happend with the RSI on the previous dump. Lets just not hope for a big bearish divergence on the daily ;)