Sawcruhteez
Short

Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 354)

KRAKEN:XBTUSD   XBT / USD
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

Sawcruhteez Strategies: Comprehensive Trading Strategy - Consensio | Comprehensive Trading Process | How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods

Consensio: 50 and 200 EMA death cross on 4h. Higher TF’s are still bullish .

Patterns: Bear Channel . Bear Flag .
Horizontals: R: $10,476 | S: $10,105 and $10,290
Trendline: Bear channel

Lucid SAR: If looking for SAR based on Welles Wilder’s original calculations then use “Lucid SAR” on Trading View.
Futures Curve: Contango with 2.61% spread (neutral)
Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01% (neutral)
TD’ Sequential: D: G2 = G1 | W price flip
Ichimoku Cloud: Weekly C Clamp. Daily Cloud is bully bearish for the first time throughout this move.
Relative Strength Index: Daily is below 50.
Average Directional Index: Weekly is rolling over above 50. Daily is fully bearish .
Price Action: 24h: +2.86% | 2w: -5.17% | 1m: -0.82%

Summary:

Preamble:

Hello everyone! It’s been a longer than usual since my last post and I’m very happy to be back. Those that follow me are likely aware of the close relationship Tyler Jenks and I developed shortly before his passing. It came out of nowhere and needless to say it was very difficult to cope with.

If you want to read a little more, and see some cool pictures of Tyler, then see this tweet thread.

In a nutshell I took time away from social media and have been gradually getting back into the swing of things over the past couple weeks. It pleases me to say that I am at a point where I am going full bore again.

Tomorrow hopes to be a landmark day for me as I will be starting my very own Youtube Channel!

***drumroll***
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It is called Sawcruhteez Streamz and the first live stream is scheduled for tomorrow, August 19th, at 4:00 PM EST!

For those that got used to my consistent daily updates on Trading View this will basically be the live streaming version with 30 minute daily videos. I’m still slightly unclear about my ability to post links in posts so if you would like to subscribe then click on my profile and you will find a link directly under my profile picture in the tagline section. I also recently tweeted a link.


Analysis:

A number of very powerful indicators, and patterns, are painting a similar bearish picture.

First of all we have the unconfirmed bear channel and bear flag outlined above. The latter is forming while price pulls up and into a death cross with the 50 and 200 EMA’s on the 4h chart.

Ichimoku Cloud

The Weekly Ichimoku Cloud has a C-Clamp, which is a very powerful indication that price needs to revert to the mean after getting overextended.



The Daily Ichimoku Cloud agrees that a short - medium term correction is in order, at a minimum. It has recently turned fully bearish (traditional settings) for the first time in 2019.



Average Directional Index

The ADX and the Cloud are looking very similar. This will often be the case and illustrates why I value both of them both so highly. Each has a very separate method to calculate trend, entries and stops. Yet both have an uncanny ability to keep you in a trend while it is strong and has room to go, while also signaling reversals when exhaustion has come.

Therefore it makes sense that the two tools I value the most show similar signals at similar times. In otherwords both do a great job of distinguishing the first and last 10% of a trend from the 80% which we are trying to capitalize on.

The Weekly ADX has recently rolled over above 50. This is my 2nd favorite tool for signaling significant corrections or full on reversals. My favorite is the weekly Parabolic SAR and it recently turned bearish as well.



The Daily ADX recently turned fully bearish . This is eerily similar to the cloud. Weekly signals exhaustion with C-Clamp and Daily has recently turned bearish to indicate a reversion to the mean is underway. The Weekly ADX signals exhaustion rolling over above 50 and the Daily has recently turned bearish to indicate the correction is underway.

When my favorite indicators line up then I know what time it is. I have already entered short, despite the bear flag remaining unconfirmed. Price pulling into a death, along with the indicators above providing very strong confirmation, is much more important to me than an unconfirmed pattern. If sitting on the outside the risk:reward still looks very nice on the short side. If that doesn't work out then I will be more than happy to exit after the 50 and 200 EMA's on the 4h chart recross bullish and then wait for further confirmation to reenter long.

If you enjoy my analysis then I would really appreciate you spreading the word about my new Youtube Channel. I want to start off with a bang so that the algorithms don’t bury me deep in the depths of the unknown.

Today I opened the channel to the public and it already has over 350 subscribers which is really awesome before my first video! If you are so inclined then come join the first few hundred who can say that they subscribed before the first stream : )

If you are really feeling inclined then share with your friends / family / followers.

Cheers!
Good work! (I don’t say that often.)
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Thanks. Glad you are back at it!
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thank you, very technical!
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The daily 200MA is slowly creeping towards the downtrend channel. Should enter it in about 4 days. Maybe this could be the time for a test at the bottom of the channel?
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Great work
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Fantastic and extremely interesting and logical analysis, as always. Very much appreciated and looking forward to Sawcruhteez Streamz!
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Really glad to see you back! Thanks for the analysis. :)
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Good to see you back Sawk! Wish Tyler was still here - I know he saw great things in you. Will be keeping in touch through your youtube channel! :)
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Welcome back! Great to see you again, you been missed! Good luck with the new YT channel!

All the best
Fred
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Thanks!
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