If you have followed me, you know I've been concerned about this move up being a bull trap and I've been generally taking short trades.
However, I trade based on structure and price action. So after I went short around $11500 (stopped out multiple time), I finally rode it down and took profits.
As I said in my last comment under the bull trap idea, I noticed exhaustion in selling, so I reversed on the hourly range bust yesterday and went long. I was anticipating BTC going up to $10k to $10700 then look to go short again. However, today's price action is telling me another story.
On this 4 hour chart you can see the range and that range has now been busted out with big volume. This is similar to the move when we busted resistance at $8800. That move went to $2700 to $10500 without a pullback so I added to my longs here.
Since the move down from $11700 to $9300 didn't stop much, the same thing happens on the wave up. No areas that built strong resistance, so this move can easily move up.
I take all this information and come to the conclusion that the probability increases that bitcoin goes up from here.
So I am long and will remain long until $9800 is broke then I will look for short opportunities. I will look to take profit somewhere over $12k and reassess. The market will have to stop me out. Since I had a good entry, I can just carry this long with a profit until the market proves its ready to go down, which may not ever happen.
Even though its a weekly bear and I trade based on price action and never get married to a position. I'm not married to this long either. If the 4 hour candle fails, then I will be back looking to short. Otherwise, I'll have to re-evaluate the weekly next week to see if this market fully turns to a bull market.
However, I trade based on structure and price action. So after I went short around $11500 (stopped out multiple time), I finally rode it down and took profits.
As I said in my last comment under the bull trap idea, I noticed exhaustion in selling, so I reversed on the hourly range bust yesterday and went long. I was anticipating BTC going up to $10k to $10700 then look to go short again. However, today's price action is telling me another story.
On this 4 hour chart you can see the range and that range has now been busted out with big volume. This is similar to the move when we busted resistance at $8800. That move went to $2700 to $10500 without a pullback so I added to my longs here.
Since the move down from $11700 to $9300 didn't stop much, the same thing happens on the wave up. No areas that built strong resistance, so this move can easily move up.
I take all this information and come to the conclusion that the probability increases that bitcoin goes up from here.
So I am long and will remain long until $9800 is broke then I will look for short opportunities. I will look to take profit somewhere over $12k and reassess. The market will have to stop me out. Since I had a good entry, I can just carry this long with a profit until the market proves its ready to go down, which may not ever happen.
Even though its a weekly bear and I trade based on price action and never get married to a position. I'm not married to this long either. If the 4 hour candle fails, then I will be back looking to short. Otherwise, I'll have to re-evaluate the weekly next week to see if this market fully turns to a bull market.
