Bitcoin : Christmas Dead Cat Bounce over ? What's next ?
Going to open a short position around this 4170 area at the next 4hr red candle for several reasons :
- We are around a 0.786 Fib Retracement from the previous 4.4k top and 3.1 bottom which is a key level for reversal.
- We are making a nasty divergence on , and , they have proven their worth during this bear market.
- It looks like we might be forming a , which is a .
- There is always a story of power in a trend which is most of the time defined by . As you can see, the on this last pump is really not significant compared to the overall of the move. It was a push that was showing that the current trend might be weakening, so we want to participate in the pullback. Looking to find 3541 as first target being the 0.618 Fib retracement of this upward move. Risk Reward ratio is 3, pretty safe.
What's next for BTC ?
From my experience, bottoms, real bottoms, never flatten out and then spring like the action we have seen this past week. Actual bottoms are violent formation with huge wicks in the candles, enormous % variation and very brutal action. I don't define the 3.1 low as bottom, therefore I think we will see lower levels in the beginning of Q1 or later this year. I don't want to hurt feelings of the newly found bulls on this platform but I think this is only a dead cat bounce that has had a violent spring fueled by FOMO and broken dreams. Now if this is a spring, we need to see if this was the end of the action or if there is more. Basically, the intensity and of the coming pullback should give us clues to whats next. If BTC manages to stand it's ground at the 0.618 Fib and look for higher prices, we might be able to make a medium term higher high before going to find the real bottom. If BTC fails to hold the 2 levels that are on the chart, things will probably turn pretty ugly.
Stay Open-Minded and Trade Safe.
Wishing you all a Merry Christmas and beautiful end of the year celebrations !
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