Sawcruhteez
Short

Bitcoin Daily Update (day 210)

KRAKEN:XBTUSD   XBT / USD
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30

Previous analysis / position: Identified resistance cluster and was on the lookout for reversal candles. Entered short on BTC at $6,511 and ETH at $220.9. / After trade moved in my favor I trailed my stops to $6,525 and $220.9. My order on BTC was a partial fill and I remain short for about 1/4th of my original position size.
Patterns: Yo dawg, I heard that you like triangles inside your descending triangle! / potential 4h h&s
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,469 | R: $6,537
BTCUSDSHORTS: Bouncing from 27,250 | ETHUSDLONGS pulling back from record highs.
Funding Rates: Longs pays shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: Acting as resistance | 26: -0.9%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: Acting as resistance. Starting to flatten out and maybe even angle upward which indicates that it is less likely to hold as resistance, and more likely to become support | 128: -4.88% and it is still angling downward
Volume: Nothing worth noting
FIB’s: 0.886: $6,254 | 0.786: $6,384 | 0.618: $6,603
Candlestick analysis: Currently re exploring wick from yesterdays doji .
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily cloud is waiting right at the top of the descending triangle in confluence with the 128 day MA. We had two closes below the 4h cloud yesterday, which made me think we would be heading down further. However the 4h 128 MA held strong as support.
TD’ Sequential: W: R2 = R1 | D: R3 = R2 | 12h: G2 briefly traded above G1 | 4h: G2 = G1 | 1h & 10m: Price flipping
Visible Range: Still testing highest liquidity zone over last year.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +/- 0 | 24h: +0.4% | 1w: +/- 0 | 2w: +/- 0 | 1m: -2.98%
Bollinger Bands: Did not close below daily MA. A return to top band at $6,768 is to be expected. Remember that a fakeout before the breakout/breakdown is very common when BB’s get this tight. Be prepared!
Trendline: Top of descending triangle waits at ~$6,800
Daily Trend: Slightly bullish
Fractals: Up = $6,830 | Down = $6,071
On Balance Volume: Bull div’ on weekly seems to be resolving itself.
ADX: ADX as support which indicates trendless market should be coming to an end
Chaikin Money Flow: Breaking through 0 on the daily and broke through 0.05 on weekly which indicates that the buyers are in control.
RSI (30 setting): W: 48.91 | D: 47.5
Stoch: Pulling back from sell signal on daily. Trying to make bullish re cross on weekly. Made a higher high on 12h, will it make another higher low?

Summary: Today I am going to be watching the charts like a hawk, trying to find another low risk entry so that I can re enter into a full short position. The resistance cluster outlined in yesterdays post is what I will be keeping my eye on.

When the Bollinger Bands get a super squeeze it is important to keep in mind the possibility of a fakeout. A quick runup to $6,800, in the matter of a couple hours or less, is exactly what I am hoping for. That would put us right at the most major resistance cluster and provide an ideal short sale entry. If that doesn’t happen then I will be watching for the two triangles to breakdown. Each would provide a favorable entry with the possibility to add if we get a throwback.

The next move is going to be enormous and it is going to happen in the blink of an eye, so be prepared! If you are smart with your stop losses and patient with your entries then there will be a lot of money to be made over the next month.
Sep 27
Comment: We are currently getting one of my favorite entries, which I refer to as 're exploring the wick'. The price is re testing the wick from the prior candles shooting star. I like to place sell orders inside the wick and put my stop loss slightly above the top of the prior candle's wick. I have re entered my BTC short position at $5,219 and have an order to short ETH at $223.

im really starting to believe this is going to happen
+1 Reply
we broke the yellow triangle to the top side.

you could draw another one from july top to september top
+1 Reply
@moviestar, Keeping my eye on the trendline that connects July 25 to September 4th which makes up the top end of the descending triangle. Sounds like the same one you are looking at.
Reply
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